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Background <p>The global consumption of electric energy is expected to exceed 3% per year. This raises a&#xa0;question about the availability of engineering and physical prerequisites for the development of the global nuclear power industry (NPI) at a&#xa0;rate of more than 4% per year, capable of increasing the contribution of nuclear power plants (NPPs) to the global production of electricity.</p> Aim <p>To analyze the conditions and scenarios of accelerated development of global NPI based on fast reactors at an annual rate exceeding 4% using the fundamental relationships between key parameters of fast reactors and closed nuclear fuel cycle.</p> Materials and methods <p>The paper proposes a&#xa0;method for the analytical prediction of global NPI development according to three scenarios using fast reactors in conditions of fuel self-sufficiency, provision with plutonium from spent nuclear fuel (SNF) of thermal reactors, and joint development of thermal and fast reactors.</p> Results <p>Under fuel self-sufficiency conditions, as well as the provision with plutonium from the reprocessed SNF of thermal reactors, the accelerated development of global NPI at a&#xa0;rate of more than 4% per year only with fast reactors may be limited due to the extreme engineering and physical capabilities of existing prototype commercial fast reactors, as well as by the development rate of SNF-reprocessing reactors and plants. An analysis of opportunities for global NPI development using thermal nuclear reactors is presented in the publication “Analytical simulation of sustainable development scenarios for global two-component nuclear power industry. Part&#xa0;1. Thermal reactor scenarios”.</p> Conclusion <p>The accelerated NPI development increasing its share in the global power generation is possible through the development of more flexible scenarios of a&#xa0;two-component global NPI, capable of implementing the synergistic effect of combined thermal and fast reactors, as implemented in Russia.</p>

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Analytical simulation of sustainable development scenarios for global two-component nuclear power industry. Part 2. Fast reactor scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月20日

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  • A. V. Abramova,
  • A. E. Zhuk,
  • V. V. Kharitonov

摘要

Background

The global consumption of electric energy is expected to exceed 3% per year. This raises a question about the availability of engineering and physical prerequisites for the development of the global nuclear power industry (NPI) at a rate of more than 4% per year, capable of increasing the contribution of nuclear power plants (NPPs) to the global production of electricity.

Aim

To analyze the conditions and scenarios of accelerated development of global NPI based on fast reactors at an annual rate exceeding 4% using the fundamental relationships between key parameters of fast reactors and closed nuclear fuel cycle.

Materials and methods

The paper proposes a method for the analytical prediction of global NPI development according to three scenarios using fast reactors in conditions of fuel self-sufficiency, provision with plutonium from spent nuclear fuel (SNF) of thermal reactors, and joint development of thermal and fast reactors.

Results

Under fuel self-sufficiency conditions, as well as the provision with plutonium from the reprocessed SNF of thermal reactors, the accelerated development of global NPI at a rate of more than 4% per year only with fast reactors may be limited due to the extreme engineering and physical capabilities of existing prototype commercial fast reactors, as well as by the development rate of SNF-reprocessing reactors and plants. An analysis of opportunities for global NPI development using thermal nuclear reactors is presented in the publication “Analytical simulation of sustainable development scenarios for global two-component nuclear power industry. Part 1. Thermal reactor scenarios”.

Conclusion

The accelerated NPI development increasing its share in the global power generation is possible through the development of more flexible scenarios of a two-component global NPI, capable of implementing the synergistic effect of combined thermal and fast reactors, as implemented in Russia.