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<p>The seafood trade has extensive implications for regional economies and food security within the&#xa0;global trade&#xa0;system. Although seafood exchanges expanded markedly after 2000, they remained vulnerable to systemic shocks, making network architecture central to understanding resilience. This study examines the evolution of the global seafood trade network from 2000 to 2023 and identifies the endogenous and exogenous forces that shape the formation and persistence of ties. Using bilateral seafood trade data, we pair multi-scale network diagnostics with a temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM). The network remains structurally sparse yet small world with a durable Europe–Asia backbone and a strengthening South from America to Asia corridor. TERGM estimates indicate that reciprocity and local triadic closure are the dominant endogenous drivers, whereas preferential attachment is not supported once heterogeneity is controlled. On the exogenous margin, capacities on either side facilitate links, shared language, and currency proximity more than physical distance, and ties display low inertial persistence under shocks. These findings provide a mechanism-based perspective to inform policies that reduce contracting frictions and to guide businesses and governments in cultivating resilient international cooperation and durable competitive advantages in seafood trade.</p>

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Structure evolution and driving mechanism of the global seafood trade network from 2000 to 2023

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月18日

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  • Yanmei Wang,
  • Wenying Yan

摘要

The seafood trade has extensive implications for regional economies and food security within the global trade system. Although seafood exchanges expanded markedly after 2000, they remained vulnerable to systemic shocks, making network architecture central to understanding resilience. This study examines the evolution of the global seafood trade network from 2000 to 2023 and identifies the endogenous and exogenous forces that shape the formation and persistence of ties. Using bilateral seafood trade data, we pair multi-scale network diagnostics with a temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM). The network remains structurally sparse yet small world with a durable Europe–Asia backbone and a strengthening South from America to Asia corridor. TERGM estimates indicate that reciprocity and local triadic closure are the dominant endogenous drivers, whereas preferential attachment is not supported once heterogeneity is controlled. On the exogenous margin, capacities on either side facilitate links, shared language, and currency proximity more than physical distance, and ties display low inertial persistence under shocks. These findings provide a mechanism-based perspective to inform policies that reduce contracting frictions and to guide businesses and governments in cultivating resilient international cooperation and durable competitive advantages in seafood trade.