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<p>Existing research offers mixed evidence on whether politician turnover inhibits or stimulates firms’ R&amp;D investment. This study reconciles these divergent findings by shifting the analytical lens from political uncertainty to the relational reconfiguration induced by political succession. Drawing on social capital theory, we conceptualize politician turnover as a node-resetting event that reshapes firms’ ability to activate firm–official social capital under new leadership. We argue that the effects of politician turnover hinge critically on the origin of the successor. When an outside successor is appointed, limited local embeddedness and the absence of shared relational history disrupt firms’ channels for activating political ties, constraining access to political information and discretionary resources and thereby dampening R&amp;D investment. By contrast, when an inside successor assumes office, continuity in local embeddedness and relational familiarity preserves these activation channels, stabilizing firms’ access to policy-relevant information and resources and thus encouraging R&amp;D investment. We further theorize that these effects are contingent on the value and substitutability of political social capital, such that the negative (positive) impact of outside (inside) turnover is amplified in politically sensitive industries and attenuated in regions with stronger market-supporting institutions. Using panel data on municipal leadership turnover and firm-level R&amp;D investment for publicly listed firms in China from 2007 to 2019, we find evidence supportive of our theory.</p>

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The dichotomous effect of politician turnover on firm R&D: A fresh look through the lens of social capital

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月20日

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  • Yumei Chen,
  • Qiwei Zhao

摘要

Existing research offers mixed evidence on whether politician turnover inhibits or stimulates firms’ R&D investment. This study reconciles these divergent findings by shifting the analytical lens from political uncertainty to the relational reconfiguration induced by political succession. Drawing on social capital theory, we conceptualize politician turnover as a node-resetting event that reshapes firms’ ability to activate firm–official social capital under new leadership. We argue that the effects of politician turnover hinge critically on the origin of the successor. When an outside successor is appointed, limited local embeddedness and the absence of shared relational history disrupt firms’ channels for activating political ties, constraining access to political information and discretionary resources and thereby dampening R&D investment. By contrast, when an inside successor assumes office, continuity in local embeddedness and relational familiarity preserves these activation channels, stabilizing firms’ access to policy-relevant information and resources and thus encouraging R&D investment. We further theorize that these effects are contingent on the value and substitutability of political social capital, such that the negative (positive) impact of outside (inside) turnover is amplified in politically sensitive industries and attenuated in regions with stronger market-supporting institutions. Using panel data on municipal leadership turnover and firm-level R&D investment for publicly listed firms in China from 2007 to 2019, we find evidence supportive of our theory.