Probabilistic load forecasting based on quantile regression parallel CNN and BiGRU networks

In the dynamic smart grid landscape, accurate probabilistic forecasting of electric load is critical. This paper presents a novel 24-hour-ahead probabilistic load forecasting model by integrating quantile regression with a parallel convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) architecture. Carefully tuning hyperparameters can enhance model performance and generalization capability. Consequently, we propose an improved whale optimization algorithm for automatic hyperparameter tuning of the forecasting model. Case studies demonstrate the proposed method’s superior performance over benchmark models in terms of average interval score and pinball loss. In addition, it exhibits valid coverage and tight interval bandwidths. The model provides precise short-term load forecasts to support robust smart grid planning and operations.