Modelling flight trajectories with multi-modal generative adversarial imitation learning

Models of aircraft trajectories become important components of systems supporting the trajectory based operations paradigm: trajectory predictability is considered to be the main driver to enhance operational key performance areas, such as capacity of the airspace, effectiveness regarding all stakeholders’ objectives, and, of course, safety. This article formulates the trajectory modelling problem as a data-driven imitation learning problem addressing multi-modality. To solve this problem we study the use of state-of-the-art multi-modal imitation learning methods Info-GAIL and Triple-GAIL operating in a supervised way, with the aim of (a) disentangling modalities representing patterns of trajectory evolution, and (b) predicting trajectories. Experiments are performed using a real-world dataset of long flights with origin Paris and destination Istanbul. Results show the potential of imitation learning methods to disentangle multi-modal trajectories in real-world settings and predict trajectories with high accuracy.