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<p>We present a multidisciplinary work which investigates disaster management under a combination of analytics, economics and management lenses. We hereby introduce two novel disaster indexes: the <i>Pre-Disaster Management Evaluation index (Pre-DMEi)</i> and the <i>Post-Disaster Management Evaluation index (Post-DMEi)</i>. Pre-DMEi provides a snapshot of a country’s economic and health status before the occurrence of a disaster while Post-DMEi captures the reaction to the disaster occurrence thus offering a dynamic evaluation of the disaster response. The pairing of these two indexes allows one to gain insight on a country’s pre-disaster status and its response capability. Additionally, Post-DMEi identifies what aspects to invest in to mitigate adverse effects if a disaster shall occur again: this is achieved through Principal Component Analysis (PCA). We test our novel disaster indexes on a real case study application: COVID-19; we restrict our case study to countries within Europe and consider the pandemic evolution over the time period ranging from the week starting on March 6th, 2020 to the week starting on July 23rd, 2021. The empirical results seem to positively support a <i>“no one-size fits all approach”</i> thus calling for a country-tailored policy management for disasters, depending on countries’ specific characteristics. Hence, eventually, this research has the potential to aid decision-makers in the evaluation, measurement, and improvement of the set of interventions needed to withstand disastrous circumstances.</p>

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Planning for the next disaster: a data-driven approach for policy evaluation with an application to COVID-19

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月15日

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  • Annunziata Esposito Amideo,
  • Alessia Paccagnini,
  • Luca Pistilli

摘要

We present a multidisciplinary work which investigates disaster management under a combination of analytics, economics and management lenses. We hereby introduce two novel disaster indexes: the Pre-Disaster Management Evaluation index (Pre-DMEi) and the Post-Disaster Management Evaluation index (Post-DMEi). Pre-DMEi provides a snapshot of a country’s economic and health status before the occurrence of a disaster while Post-DMEi captures the reaction to the disaster occurrence thus offering a dynamic evaluation of the disaster response. The pairing of these two indexes allows one to gain insight on a country’s pre-disaster status and its response capability. Additionally, Post-DMEi identifies what aspects to invest in to mitigate adverse effects if a disaster shall occur again: this is achieved through Principal Component Analysis (PCA). We test our novel disaster indexes on a real case study application: COVID-19; we restrict our case study to countries within Europe and consider the pandemic evolution over the time period ranging from the week starting on March 6th, 2020 to the week starting on July 23rd, 2021. The empirical results seem to positively support a “no one-size fits all approach” thus calling for a country-tailored policy management for disasters, depending on countries’ specific characteristics. Hence, eventually, this research has the potential to aid decision-makers in the evaluation, measurement, and improvement of the set of interventions needed to withstand disastrous circumstances.