<p>This study examines healthcare utilization targets across hospital departments with similar resource needs. Given the uncertainty and variability in service times, along with inherent departmental differences, we propose a tailored approach utilizing a quantitative framework based on Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) to evaluate service overruns with a defined confidence level. We then establish optimal service planning for each department and develop specific utilization targets. Our framework includes practical numerical computation methods, particularly for scenarios where service durations follow normal or lognormal distributions. We derive analytical relationships between the mean and standard deviation of service durations and utilization rates under the assumption of normal distributions. The framework is applied to operating theatre planning in a public hospital in Singapore, offering decision-makers insights into the trade-offs involved in setting utilization targets across various departments. Our findings suggest that departments with higher variability in surgery durations may need to operate at lower utilization levels while experiencing a greater likelihood of service overruns.</p>

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Optimizing healthcare utilization using conditional value-at-risk: applications in operating theatre planning

  • Fanwen Meng,
  • Kiok Liang Teow,
  • Palvannan Kannapiran,
  • John Arputhan Abisheganaden

摘要

This study examines healthcare utilization targets across hospital departments with similar resource needs. Given the uncertainty and variability in service times, along with inherent departmental differences, we propose a tailored approach utilizing a quantitative framework based on Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) to evaluate service overruns with a defined confidence level. We then establish optimal service planning for each department and develop specific utilization targets. Our framework includes practical numerical computation methods, particularly for scenarios where service durations follow normal or lognormal distributions. We derive analytical relationships between the mean and standard deviation of service durations and utilization rates under the assumption of normal distributions. The framework is applied to operating theatre planning in a public hospital in Singapore, offering decision-makers insights into the trade-offs involved in setting utilization targets across various departments. Our findings suggest that departments with higher variability in surgery durations may need to operate at lower utilization levels while experiencing a greater likelihood of service overruns.