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<p>Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) non-adherence may be transmitted in the social network of men who have sex with men (MSM). The aim of this study was to explore the mechanisms of transmission of non-adherence behaviors from a social network perspective to guide behavioral intervention strategies. In this study, we utilized data from a prospective cohort study on PrEP conducted in Western China from 2019 to 2023. By integrating social network theory with the SIR model, we developed rules defining the transmission of non-adherence behaviors among MSM and estimated the associated transmission parameters. The agent-based models were developed using NetLogo software to simulate the transmission process of non-adherence behavior under various conditions, and the models were subsequently evaluated. A total of 235 MSM were included. Based on the parameters, the MSM were categorized into S-MSM, I-MSM and R-MSM and the transmission parameters: transmission probability (α), recovery probability (β) and transition probability (γ) were calculated. The results indicated that increasing the frequency of follow-ups significantly reduced the transmission time, lowering the percentage of I-MSM and shortening the time to peak. Additionally, enhancing the recovery probability maximized the percentage of R-MSM. Our study innovatively applied agent-based modeling methods, providing a new theoretical basis for understanding and intervening in PrEP non-adherence behaviors among MSM population. The model not only reveals the impact of different individual characteristics on the transmission of non-adherence behavior but also provides a viable simulation tool for designing tailored intervention strategies.</p>

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Modeling transmission of pre-exposure prophylaxis non-adherence among MSM using data-driven agent-based approaches: a real-world study

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月27日

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  • Bing Lin,
  • Jiaxiu Liu,
  • Kangjie Li,
  • Xiaoni Zhong

摘要

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) non-adherence may be transmitted in the social network of men who have sex with men (MSM). The aim of this study was to explore the mechanisms of transmission of non-adherence behaviors from a social network perspective to guide behavioral intervention strategies. In this study, we utilized data from a prospective cohort study on PrEP conducted in Western China from 2019 to 2023. By integrating social network theory with the SIR model, we developed rules defining the transmission of non-adherence behaviors among MSM and estimated the associated transmission parameters. The agent-based models were developed using NetLogo software to simulate the transmission process of non-adherence behavior under various conditions, and the models were subsequently evaluated. A total of 235 MSM were included. Based on the parameters, the MSM were categorized into S-MSM, I-MSM and R-MSM and the transmission parameters: transmission probability (α), recovery probability (β) and transition probability (γ) were calculated. The results indicated that increasing the frequency of follow-ups significantly reduced the transmission time, lowering the percentage of I-MSM and shortening the time to peak. Additionally, enhancing the recovery probability maximized the percentage of R-MSM. Our study innovatively applied agent-based modeling methods, providing a new theoretical basis for understanding and intervening in PrEP non-adherence behaviors among MSM population. The model not only reveals the impact of different individual characteristics on the transmission of non-adherence behavior but also provides a viable simulation tool for designing tailored intervention strategies.