Simulation approach with MC-reduction for multi-state flow network reliability estimation

A multistate flow network (MSFN) is an applicable model for constructing and evaluating practical systems, including an information system in resilient supply chain network. When assessing the performance of an MSFN, system reliability is a critical indicator in determining the probability that a given demand will be transmitted by the MSFN. This study develops a minimal cut (MC)-based simulation approach for estimating the system reliability of an MSFN. This simulation approach does not require the upper boundary points for the demand, which are essential in many existing simulation approaches. Additionally, the concept of a cut size limit is integrated into the simulation to reduce the number of MCs, with the computational time exhibiting a linear dependence on the number of MCs. The novel MC-reduction simulation approach proposed in this study estimates system reliability more efficiently than traditional approaches. The effectiveness of the MC-reduction simulation approach is validated on a series of examples, including a time-series analysis of a real-life computer system. Therefore, the proposed approach is advantaged to evaluate the performance of information system in a large supply chain network.