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<p>An agent-based modelling approach is a powerful means of understanding social phenomena by modelling individual behaviours and interactions. However, the advancements in modelling pose challenges in the model analysis process for understanding the complex effects of input factors, especially when it comes to offering concrete policies for improving system outcomes. In this work, we propose a revised micro-dynamic analysis method that adopts pattern mining and causal discovery methods to enhance the model interpretation and to facilitate group-specific policy-making. It strengthens the explanation power of the conventional micro-dynamic analysis by eliminating ambiguity in the result interpretation and enabling a causal interpretation of a target phenomenon across subgroups. We applied our method to understand an agent-based model that evaluates the effects of a long-term care scheme on access to care. Our findings showed that the method can suggest policies for improving the equity of access more efficiently than the conventional scenario analysis.</p>

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Using causal discovery and pattern mining methods for group-specific policy-making: An agent-based model analysis method

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月8日

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  • Shuang Chang,
  • Tatsuya Asai,
  • Yusuke Koyanagi,
  • Kento Uemura,
  • Koji Maruhashi,
  • Kotaro Ohori

摘要

An agent-based modelling approach is a powerful means of understanding social phenomena by modelling individual behaviours and interactions. However, the advancements in modelling pose challenges in the model analysis process for understanding the complex effects of input factors, especially when it comes to offering concrete policies for improving system outcomes. In this work, we propose a revised micro-dynamic analysis method that adopts pattern mining and causal discovery methods to enhance the model interpretation and to facilitate group-specific policy-making. It strengthens the explanation power of the conventional micro-dynamic analysis by eliminating ambiguity in the result interpretation and enabling a causal interpretation of a target phenomenon across subgroups. We applied our method to understand an agent-based model that evaluates the effects of a long-term care scheme on access to care. Our findings showed that the method can suggest policies for improving the equity of access more efficiently than the conventional scenario analysis.