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<p>Variations in start, end, duration, and intensity of main pollen seasons represent a growing public issue, particularly in light of the rising prevalence of pollen sensitization among populations. However, the assessment of long-term pollen trends depends heavily on how the main pollen season is defined. In this study, we analyzed airborne pollen data in Tétouan (NW of Morocco) over the period 2008–2024, applying eight different main pollen season definitions—including two percentage-based, four threshold-based, a moving mean, and a logistic method—to four major allergenic taxa. Linear trends were assessed using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall method with Theil–Sen slope estimates. Our analysis revealed a significant delay in the onset of the main pollen season for Poaceae and Cupressaceae. For Poaceae, this delay was detected using the threshold method (definition 4) and moving mean method, whereas for Cupressaceae it was identified using the threshold methods (definitions 3 and 4) and logistic method. The observed trends in main pollen season end dates varied depending on the definition applied, although negative trends—indicating an earlier end to the season—were predominant. Specifically, advances of 1.5&#xa0;days for Olea (threshold definition 3), 1.57&#xa0;days for Poaceae (moving mean method), and 5.8&#xa0;days for Quercus (99%) were observed. Regarding main pollen season duration, most methods revealed a statistically significant shortening for Quercus, Poaceae, and Olea. Despite methodological differences, all definitions provided consistent delineation of the main pollen season over the 15-year study period for the four taxa analyzed. However, the definition of main pollen season remains a debated issue in aerobiology, with no single approach proving universally applicable. Our findings reinforce that no individual main pollen season definition consistently outperforms others in capturing the phenological dynamics of Olea, Quercus, Poaceae, and Cupressaceae.</p>

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Methodological comparison of pollen season definitions and temporal trends in allergenic taxa (2008–2024)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月4日

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  • Asmaa Boullayali,
  • Ijlal Raissouni,
  • Abdelouahab Sahli,
  • Hassan Bouziane

摘要

Variations in start, end, duration, and intensity of main pollen seasons represent a growing public issue, particularly in light of the rising prevalence of pollen sensitization among populations. However, the assessment of long-term pollen trends depends heavily on how the main pollen season is defined. In this study, we analyzed airborne pollen data in Tétouan (NW of Morocco) over the period 2008–2024, applying eight different main pollen season definitions—including two percentage-based, four threshold-based, a moving mean, and a logistic method—to four major allergenic taxa. Linear trends were assessed using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall method with Theil–Sen slope estimates. Our analysis revealed a significant delay in the onset of the main pollen season for Poaceae and Cupressaceae. For Poaceae, this delay was detected using the threshold method (definition 4) and moving mean method, whereas for Cupressaceae it was identified using the threshold methods (definitions 3 and 4) and logistic method. The observed trends in main pollen season end dates varied depending on the definition applied, although negative trends—indicating an earlier end to the season—were predominant. Specifically, advances of 1.5 days for Olea (threshold definition 3), 1.57 days for Poaceae (moving mean method), and 5.8 days for Quercus (99%) were observed. Regarding main pollen season duration, most methods revealed a statistically significant shortening for Quercus, Poaceae, and Olea. Despite methodological differences, all definitions provided consistent delineation of the main pollen season over the 15-year study period for the four taxa analyzed. However, the definition of main pollen season remains a debated issue in aerobiology, with no single approach proving universally applicable. Our findings reinforce that no individual main pollen season definition consistently outperforms others in capturing the phenological dynamics of Olea, Quercus, Poaceae, and Cupressaceae.