Spatial Pattern Formation in a Reaction Diffusion Model of Lassa Fever with Adaptive Mobility and Environmental Spillover
摘要
Zoonotic diseases, such as Lassa fever, have complicated spatiotemporal dynamics that are influenced by human migration, behavioural responses to infection risk, and environmental transmission via animal reservoirs. Classical spatial epidemic models frequently assume static mobility and ignore the link between disease frequency and movement, limiting their ability to capture geographical variability. In this paper, we present a network-based reaction-diffusion model in which human mobility adjusts to local infection incidence, while infection pressure is maintained via zoonotic spillover and environmental contamination. The model analysis shows that adaptive mobility reorganizes epidemic spread into multiple dynamical regimes, such as homogenized diffusion, wave-like propagation, spatial localization, and suppression-driven extinction. Intermediate levels of mobility suppression encourage spatial heterogeneity, resulting in long-lasting infection hotspots even in well-connected networks. Environmental transmission further sustains infection in regimes where human-to-human transmission alone is insufficient for persistence. To quantify long-term outcomes, we introduce measures of cumulative infection burden, environmental exposure, and spatial dominance across parameter space. The findings underscore the possible limitations of mobility suppression as a management method in endemic zoonotic settings, as well as the importance of environmental transmission in determining disease dynamics. This concept sheds fresh light on spillover-driven persistence and hotspot generation in spatially structured populations.