Risk of developing long COVID based on acute COVID-19 severity

Long-haul COVID-19 poses a profound burden to public health. According to the CDC, approximately one in five people who contract COVID-19 have lingering COVID-related symptoms 3 months after testing positive for COVID-19. This paper examines how overall symptom severity in the acute COVID-19 period is related to the risk of developing long COVID and experiencing severe long COVID-related symptoms within the US Veteran population.

This study used the Ipsos KnowledgePanel technique to survey 3340 US Veterans and their experiences with COVID-19. Of those surveyed, 658 Veterans had tested positive for COVID-19 and 302 (46%) had symptoms that lasted more than 4 weeks. Veterans reported the types of symptoms they had, the severity of each symptom, and the duration of each symptom. The survey was conducted in October and November of 2021.

The most common symptoms experienced 4 weeks after testing positive were fatigue, joint pain, headaches, coughing, and fever. Older patients were more likely to experience long COVID, but age was not statistically associated with severity of symptoms experienced during long COVID. The strongest predictors of whether or not a person would develop long COVID and/or severe long COVID symptoms was the severity of their symptoms during the acute phase.

Understanding the risk factors associated with developing long COVID and severe long COVID will help identify people who would benefit from an intervention that can either mitigate or at least manage the symptoms to prevent further health problems.