Endoscopic program with a scoring system for surveillance of metachronous esophageal cell carcinoma for older patients considering risk factors after endoscopic resection

This study evaluated the association between the risk factors and prognosis for metachronous esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) after endoscopic resection (ER) of esophageal cancer in older patients.

We conducted a retrospective observational study of 127 patients with ESCC who underwent ER from 2015 to 2020. Patients were classified as non-older (≤ 64 years), early older (65–74 years), and late older (≥ 75 years). We analyzed factors associated with poor overall survival and metachronous ESCC after ER using multivariate Cox regression analysis. A metachronous ESCC prediction scoring system was examined to validate the surveillance endoscopy program.

Body mass index (BMI) and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were significant risk factors for poor overall survival in the multivariate analysis (p = 0.050 and p = 0.037, respectively). Multivariate analysis revealed that age of < 64 years, Lugol-voiding lesions (grade B/C), and head and neck cancer were significantly related to metachronous ESCC (p = 0.035, p = 0.035, and p = 0.014, respectively). In the development cohort, BMI < 18.5 kg/m², CCI > 2, age < 64 years, Lugol-voiding lesions (grade B/C), and head and neck cancer were significantly related to metachronous ESCC, and each case was assigned 1 point. Patients were classified into low (0, 1, and 2) and high (> 3) score groups based on total scores. According to Kaplan–Meier curves, the 3-year overall survival was significantly lower in the high-score group than in the low-score group (91.5% vs. 100%, p = 0.012).

We proposed an endoscopic surveillance scoring system for metachronous ESCC considering BMI and CCI in older patients.