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<p>Driven by the global energy transition and the push for carbon neutrality, the landscape of energy trade is undergoing significant changes. However, long-term dynamic analysis of energy trade between the Middle East, particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Iran, and other parts of Asia remains limited. Using energy trade data from 2001 to 2023, this study assesses competitiveness and trade potential through an extended gravity model, complemented by the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and cosine indices. The results show that Iran and the GCC countries have strong comparative advantages in oil and natural gas but remain less competitive in coal and electricity, with high supply-and-demand alignment in key Asian markets such as China, Japan, and South Korea. While economic development, carbon intensity, and diplomatic relations tend to promote exports, importer-side energy transition and exporter-side energy consumption significantly constrain trade. Notably, the crowding-out effect of domestic energy consumption is particularly pronounced, and the restrictive impact of the energy transition is stronger in high-income importing countries. Trade potential varies across countries, falling into high, medium, and low categories, highlighting substantial opportunities in major Asian economies.</p>

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Energy trade in the transition era: Middle East and Asia’s evolving dynamics

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月29日

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  • Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary,
  • Wenchao Wang,
  • Yang Liu,
  • Ehsan Rasoulinezhad

摘要

Driven by the global energy transition and the push for carbon neutrality, the landscape of energy trade is undergoing significant changes. However, long-term dynamic analysis of energy trade between the Middle East, particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Iran, and other parts of Asia remains limited. Using energy trade data from 2001 to 2023, this study assesses competitiveness and trade potential through an extended gravity model, complemented by the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and cosine indices. The results show that Iran and the GCC countries have strong comparative advantages in oil and natural gas but remain less competitive in coal and electricity, with high supply-and-demand alignment in key Asian markets such as China, Japan, and South Korea. While economic development, carbon intensity, and diplomatic relations tend to promote exports, importer-side energy transition and exporter-side energy consumption significantly constrain trade. Notably, the crowding-out effect of domestic energy consumption is particularly pronounced, and the restrictive impact of the energy transition is stronger in high-income importing countries. Trade potential varies across countries, falling into high, medium, and low categories, highlighting substantial opportunities in major Asian economies.