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<p>This study investigates the dynamic relationship between energy security risk and corruption across 25 European Union (EU) member states over the 2008–2023 period using the Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) methodology. The <i>Energy &amp; Climate Security Risk Index</i> is employed as the indicator of energy security risk, while the “control of corruption” variable from the World Bank’s <i>Worldwide Governance Indicators</i> dataset serves as a proxy for corruption. Empirical findings reveal that energy security risk has no statistically significant effect on corruption, indicating that EU countries exhibit strong institutional and governance resilience to energy market shocks. The Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) analysis shows that in the long run, 92.89% of corruption dynamics are explained by their own autoregressive structure, while energy security risk accounts for only 1.25% of this variance. However, energy security risk exerts a significant influence on macroeconomic variables, explaining 15.87% of GDP variance and 34.77% of inflation variance. The results suggest that the “resource curse” hypothesis does not hold for advanced economies and that corruption in EU countries is shaped more by historical and structural factors than by short-term energy shocks. Overall, the study emphasizes that energy security policies should not be viewed as instruments of institutional reform but rather as policy tools aimed at ensuring macroeconomic stability.</p>

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Macroeconomic and institutional impacts of energy security risk in the European Union

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月18日

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  • Yasin Büyükkör,
  • Tufan Sarıtaş,
  • Emin Ahmet Kaplan,
  • Alper Aslan

摘要

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between energy security risk and corruption across 25 European Union (EU) member states over the 2008–2023 period using the Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) methodology. The Energy & Climate Security Risk Index is employed as the indicator of energy security risk, while the “control of corruption” variable from the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators dataset serves as a proxy for corruption. Empirical findings reveal that energy security risk has no statistically significant effect on corruption, indicating that EU countries exhibit strong institutional and governance resilience to energy market shocks. The Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) analysis shows that in the long run, 92.89% of corruption dynamics are explained by their own autoregressive structure, while energy security risk accounts for only 1.25% of this variance. However, energy security risk exerts a significant influence on macroeconomic variables, explaining 15.87% of GDP variance and 34.77% of inflation variance. The results suggest that the “resource curse” hypothesis does not hold for advanced economies and that corruption in EU countries is shaped more by historical and structural factors than by short-term energy shocks. Overall, the study emphasizes that energy security policies should not be viewed as instruments of institutional reform but rather as policy tools aimed at ensuring macroeconomic stability.