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<p>The prolonged U.S.–China trade tensions have reshaped global trade dynamics, yet little is known about how individual ASEAN member countries are affected over time. ASEAN economies are deeply embedded in both US and Chinese value chains, exhibit diverse export structures, and occupy different positions within China’s supply networks—creating multiple channels through which the trade war can generate asymmetric effects. While existing literature often treats ASEAN as a homogenous bloc, this study addresses the gap by examining country-specific heterogeneity in export responses from 1993 to 2024. The study disentangles the differentiated impacts of US–China trade tensions on individual ASEAN exports to both the US and China, while assessing the role of pre-tension export dependence indices and their interaction with the trade tensions. Using the recently developed Trade Tension Index and country-specific Driscoll–Kraay standard errors estimate, the analysis uncovers sharp asymmetries. On the US side, ASEAN exports declined, with the downturn more severe in countries that had higher pre-tension dependence on the US. In contrast, US-China tension increased exports to China. The pre-tension export dependence on China significantly boosted ASEAN exports across all members. However, its interaction with US–China trade tensions reveal divergent outcomes. Economies such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Brunei, saw dependence amplified gains, while Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Cambodia exhibited negative responses, with Singapore remaining neutral. The study contributes to existing literature as it uncovers the heterogeneous impacts of US–China trade tensions across ASEAN countries by integrating pre-tension export dependence indices and interaction effects, offering fresh insights into how structural trade linkages shape resilience and vulnerability.</p>

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Between giants: the US-China trade war and ASEAN’s evolving role in global trade

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月24日

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  • Sodiq Olaiwola Jimoh,
  • Soo Khoon Goh,
  • Siew Yean Tham

摘要

The prolonged U.S.–China trade tensions have reshaped global trade dynamics, yet little is known about how individual ASEAN member countries are affected over time. ASEAN economies are deeply embedded in both US and Chinese value chains, exhibit diverse export structures, and occupy different positions within China’s supply networks—creating multiple channels through which the trade war can generate asymmetric effects. While existing literature often treats ASEAN as a homogenous bloc, this study addresses the gap by examining country-specific heterogeneity in export responses from 1993 to 2024. The study disentangles the differentiated impacts of US–China trade tensions on individual ASEAN exports to both the US and China, while assessing the role of pre-tension export dependence indices and their interaction with the trade tensions. Using the recently developed Trade Tension Index and country-specific Driscoll–Kraay standard errors estimate, the analysis uncovers sharp asymmetries. On the US side, ASEAN exports declined, with the downturn more severe in countries that had higher pre-tension dependence on the US. In contrast, US-China tension increased exports to China. The pre-tension export dependence on China significantly boosted ASEAN exports across all members. However, its interaction with US–China trade tensions reveal divergent outcomes. Economies such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Brunei, saw dependence amplified gains, while Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Cambodia exhibited negative responses, with Singapore remaining neutral. The study contributes to existing literature as it uncovers the heterogeneous impacts of US–China trade tensions across ASEAN countries by integrating pre-tension export dependence indices and interaction effects, offering fresh insights into how structural trade linkages shape resilience and vulnerability.