<p>In the context of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the European Union, we try to assess in this paper the dynamic effects of trade liberalization on the Tunisian economy. The simulation features liberalization of the agricultural and services sectors where both border liberalization and investment liberalization were to be considered. To achieve this purpose, we are developing an intertemporal dynamic CGE model with perfect foresight. Simulations’ outcomes indicate small welfare gains and a significant decrease in the unemployment rate of respectively 1.29% and 1.89%. The level of total imports from the European Union countries could grow by 3.76%, while total exports to these countries could decrease by 2.89%. Moreover, the scenarios show that trade balance, import duties revenue and the GDP could all decline by respectively 19.60%, 40.82% and 1.41%.</p>

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Deep integration with the EU: intertemporal dynamic effects of agricultural and services trade liberalization on Tunisia

  • Wissem Belhadj,
  • Mohamed Adel Dhif,
  • Abdessalem Abbassi

摘要

In the context of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the European Union, we try to assess in this paper the dynamic effects of trade liberalization on the Tunisian economy. The simulation features liberalization of the agricultural and services sectors where both border liberalization and investment liberalization were to be considered. To achieve this purpose, we are developing an intertemporal dynamic CGE model with perfect foresight. Simulations’ outcomes indicate small welfare gains and a significant decrease in the unemployment rate of respectively 1.29% and 1.89%. The level of total imports from the European Union countries could grow by 3.76%, while total exports to these countries could decrease by 2.89%. Moreover, the scenarios show that trade balance, import duties revenue and the GDP could all decline by respectively 19.60%, 40.82% and 1.41%.