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<p>This study examines the short-run and long-run relationships between energy trade, energy mix, and total trade balance across 24 high-income economies (1990–2023), addressing a critical gap in the literature. While previous studies explore energy prices and trade flows, limited research has analyzed the direct causal impact of energy trade balance on macroeconomic trade stability. This study fills that void using rigorous econometric techniques, including instrumental variable regression, panel cointegration models, and country-level heterogeneity analysis, ensuring empirical robustness. The findings indicate that energy trade balance is a key determinant of total trade balance, with crude oil and petroleum trade exerting the most significant influence. In the short run, renewable energy adoption increases trade deficits due to infrastructure costs, but in the long run, it reduces trade imbalances by lowering fossil fuel reliance. Regional heterogeneity is evident, with EU economies exhibiting higher trade sensitivity to energy fluctuations than non-EU nations. Policy recommendations emphasize energy trade diversification, strategic renewable investments, and efficiency-driven carbon policies to enhance trade stability. This research provides a data-driven foundation for energy-trade policy formulation, offering novel insights for macroeconomic stability, energy security, and sustainable global trade governance.</p>

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Energy transition and trade balance: short-run challenges and long-run equilibrium for high-income economies

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月11日

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  • Avik Ghosh,
  • Ankit Magotra

摘要

This study examines the short-run and long-run relationships between energy trade, energy mix, and total trade balance across 24 high-income economies (1990–2023), addressing a critical gap in the literature. While previous studies explore energy prices and trade flows, limited research has analyzed the direct causal impact of energy trade balance on macroeconomic trade stability. This study fills that void using rigorous econometric techniques, including instrumental variable regression, panel cointegration models, and country-level heterogeneity analysis, ensuring empirical robustness. The findings indicate that energy trade balance is a key determinant of total trade balance, with crude oil and petroleum trade exerting the most significant influence. In the short run, renewable energy adoption increases trade deficits due to infrastructure costs, but in the long run, it reduces trade imbalances by lowering fossil fuel reliance. Regional heterogeneity is evident, with EU economies exhibiting higher trade sensitivity to energy fluctuations than non-EU nations. Policy recommendations emphasize energy trade diversification, strategic renewable investments, and efficiency-driven carbon policies to enhance trade stability. This research provides a data-driven foundation for energy-trade policy formulation, offering novel insights for macroeconomic stability, energy security, and sustainable global trade governance.