Scholarlink

<p>We re-examine risk tolerance levels in worldwide external sovereign debt defaults. Individual thresholds are used to predict the hazard of single and multiple defaults across worldwide geographic clusters to observe heterogeneities among different international regions. Subsequently, we build different scenarios to observe combinations of thresholds that would lead to a gradual increase in the predicted probability of single and recurring sovereign debt defaults, reaching almost 100%. The validity of our empirical model is tested using a variety of criteria, all of which lead to the same conclusions in relation to reasonable in-sample and out-sample prediction accuracy. Our study contributes to literature in relation to understanding of sovereign debt defaults as well as the additive role of different economic and financial factors in increasing risk of external debt defaults.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Examination and predictions of risk tolerance levels and thresholds in sovereigns’ external debt defaults

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月19日

查看全文
  • Yaseen Ghulam

摘要

We re-examine risk tolerance levels in worldwide external sovereign debt defaults. Individual thresholds are used to predict the hazard of single and multiple defaults across worldwide geographic clusters to observe heterogeneities among different international regions. Subsequently, we build different scenarios to observe combinations of thresholds that would lead to a gradual increase in the predicted probability of single and recurring sovereign debt defaults, reaching almost 100%. The validity of our empirical model is tested using a variety of criteria, all of which lead to the same conclusions in relation to reasonable in-sample and out-sample prediction accuracy. Our study contributes to literature in relation to understanding of sovereign debt defaults as well as the additive role of different economic and financial factors in increasing risk of external debt defaults.