The effect of remittances on the Indian economy

The paper analyzes the effect of remittances on selected Indian macroeconomic variables, including output growth, inflation, exchange rate, stock returns, and the money supply. We further divide remittances into an increase and decrease in remittances to explore the asymmetric effect of remittances. Using a novel local projection method and quarterly data from 1997Q₂ to 2019Q₄, it is found that remittances have a significant and asymmetric effect on the Indian economy. The increase in remittances has an immediate effect, while the decrease in remittances has a delayed effect by around 6 to 8 quarters. The study concludes by arguing that not only the growth of remittances but also their asymmetric effect may be crucial for policy analysis.