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<p>To investigate the formation mechanism and stability of the Attabad landslide-dammed lake along the China–Pakistan Karakoram Highway (CPKH), this study utilized ten epochs of high-resolution satellite imagery (QuickBird, Pleiades, WorldView-2) spanning nearly 15&#xa0;years before and after the landslide event. The formation mechanism was investigated based on the geological conditions of the Attabad landslide and its causative factors. Stability assessment of the landslide-dammed lake was conducted considering the landslide deformation characteristics, changes in the lake area, and deformation characteristics of the disaster-pregnant environment. This research aims to provide technical support for landslide prevention and control, disaster mitigation along the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and route selection for the proposed China–Pakistan Railway. The results indicate that: (1) The formation of the Attabad landslide occurred at the intersection of multiple fault zones, with surface cracks developing in its middle section. It was situated at the contact zone between granite and soft rock. Previous rock falls and debris flows increased the free face. Under intense freeze–thaw cycles, and within a water-saturated unstable slope accumulating substantial surface and groundwater, the ice-wedge frost heaving in the rock mass reached its maximum, collectively causing the landslide event. (2) Analysis of landslide deformation and lake area changes over the past 15&#xa0;years reveals that the Attabad landslide area has gradually expanded, with the landslide scarp retreating progressively. The lake area peaked in 2010 and subsequently decreased and stabilized. However, the retreat of the landslide scarp has led to increased sediment accumulation in the river channel, posing a renewed risk of channel blockage. Artificial regulation of the landslide dam is periodically required. (3) The ancient landslide within the southwestern segment of the Attabad landslide-dammed lake area along the CPKH exhibits instability factors, including ground fissures, gelifluction, and water-saturated fault zones. This warrants an early warning regarding the potential for successive landslides (reactivation). Furthermore, two locations in the geological environment surrounding this highway section are identified as geological hazard warning zones.</p>

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Formation mechanism and stability assessment of the Attabad landslide-dammed lake along the China-Pakistan Karakoram Highway using remote sensing technology

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月10日

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  • Li Yousan,
  • Hongkui Yang,
  • Lei Zheng,
  • Wanqiang Qi,
  • Chongyi E,
  • Tiansheng Gao

摘要

To investigate the formation mechanism and stability of the Attabad landslide-dammed lake along the China–Pakistan Karakoram Highway (CPKH), this study utilized ten epochs of high-resolution satellite imagery (QuickBird, Pleiades, WorldView-2) spanning nearly 15 years before and after the landslide event. The formation mechanism was investigated based on the geological conditions of the Attabad landslide and its causative factors. Stability assessment of the landslide-dammed lake was conducted considering the landslide deformation characteristics, changes in the lake area, and deformation characteristics of the disaster-pregnant environment. This research aims to provide technical support for landslide prevention and control, disaster mitigation along the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and route selection for the proposed China–Pakistan Railway. The results indicate that: (1) The formation of the Attabad landslide occurred at the intersection of multiple fault zones, with surface cracks developing in its middle section. It was situated at the contact zone between granite and soft rock. Previous rock falls and debris flows increased the free face. Under intense freeze–thaw cycles, and within a water-saturated unstable slope accumulating substantial surface and groundwater, the ice-wedge frost heaving in the rock mass reached its maximum, collectively causing the landslide event. (2) Analysis of landslide deformation and lake area changes over the past 15 years reveals that the Attabad landslide area has gradually expanded, with the landslide scarp retreating progressively. The lake area peaked in 2010 and subsequently decreased and stabilized. However, the retreat of the landslide scarp has led to increased sediment accumulation in the river channel, posing a renewed risk of channel blockage. Artificial regulation of the landslide dam is periodically required. (3) The ancient landslide within the southwestern segment of the Attabad landslide-dammed lake area along the CPKH exhibits instability factors, including ground fissures, gelifluction, and water-saturated fault zones. This warrants an early warning regarding the potential for successive landslides (reactivation). Furthermore, two locations in the geological environment surrounding this highway section are identified as geological hazard warning zones.