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<p>This study uses high-resolution GNSS monitoring and GIS-based spatial analysis to investigate the dynamics of an active landslide in the northwestern urban area of Chilpancingo, Guerrero, Mexico. Over 12&#xa0;months (September 2022–September 2023), 38 GNSS control points provided continuous measurements of horizontal and vertical ground displacements, revealing progressive creep-type movements influenced by seismic activity, seasonal rainfall, and anthropogenic pressures. Maximum horizontal displacements exceeded 0.92&#xa0;m annually in the southern neighborhoods of Dr. Francisco Catalán and Bicentenario, with vertical subsidence reaching − 0.22&#xa0;m in La Era. A mixed-effects statistical model demonstrated that seismic events and precipitation significantly accelerate displacement rates, especially in areas with clay-rich soils and inadequate drainage infrastructure. Contrary to local belief, the observed movement is not linked to a geological fault but to shallow soil instability. The integration of displacement data into a GIS platform enabled the creation of thematic maps and a risk index at the block level, identifying high- to very-high-risk zones in Santa Cruz Norte, Ampliación San Rafael Norte, and Tlacaelle. The findings underscore the urgent need for land-use regulations and proactive risk mitigation strategies. This methodology offers a transferable framework for assessing landslide risk in urbanized slopes, supporting the development of safer urban planning practices. Future work will incorporate UAV-based photogrammetry and AI-driven feature detection to enhance monitoring and minimize risk to personnel in the field.</p>

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Spatial assessment of landslide risk using GNSS-based displacement analysis and a resident vulnerability index in northwestern Chilpancingo, Guerrero, Mexico

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月28日

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  • René Vázquez-Jiménez,
  • Jorge Azabay Bravo,
  • Rocío N. Ramos-Bernal,
  • Sulpicio Sánchez Tizapa,
  • Wendy Romero-Rojas,
  • Patricia Arrogante‑Funes,
  • Adrián G. Bruzón

摘要

This study uses high-resolution GNSS monitoring and GIS-based spatial analysis to investigate the dynamics of an active landslide in the northwestern urban area of Chilpancingo, Guerrero, Mexico. Over 12 months (September 2022–September 2023), 38 GNSS control points provided continuous measurements of horizontal and vertical ground displacements, revealing progressive creep-type movements influenced by seismic activity, seasonal rainfall, and anthropogenic pressures. Maximum horizontal displacements exceeded 0.92 m annually in the southern neighborhoods of Dr. Francisco Catalán and Bicentenario, with vertical subsidence reaching − 0.22 m in La Era. A mixed-effects statistical model demonstrated that seismic events and precipitation significantly accelerate displacement rates, especially in areas with clay-rich soils and inadequate drainage infrastructure. Contrary to local belief, the observed movement is not linked to a geological fault but to shallow soil instability. The integration of displacement data into a GIS platform enabled the creation of thematic maps and a risk index at the block level, identifying high- to very-high-risk zones in Santa Cruz Norte, Ampliación San Rafael Norte, and Tlacaelle. The findings underscore the urgent need for land-use regulations and proactive risk mitigation strategies. This methodology offers a transferable framework for assessing landslide risk in urbanized slopes, supporting the development of safer urban planning practices. Future work will incorporate UAV-based photogrammetry and AI-driven feature detection to enhance monitoring and minimize risk to personnel in the field.