<p>Given ongoing global warming, rigorous investigations of the effects of climate change on landslides are needed, demanding datasets at proper spatial and temporal scales, tailored theoretical approaches, and large computational efforts. Recently, there has been an increase in studies using landslide models constrained by climate projections (i.e. modelling approaches) to estimate future landslide behaviour and investigate the landslide-climate change relationships at different spatial scales, particularly in Europe. Searching in the most authoritative scientific databases, we review 50 papers published in the period 1998–2023 and dealing with the use of climate and landslide modelling chains in European study areas. We analyse all components of the modelling chains, with a particular focus on the future scenarios adopted. A variety of methods, models and tools, and several climatic and geo-morpho-mechanical variables are considered, with an increase of regional-scale analyses in recent years. Physically based approaches are most common in slope-scale works, while data-driven analyses dominate basin-scale works. Up-to-date simulation ensembles are often used to estimate modelling uncertainties, but paying little attention to the selection of models and the consequences of such choices. Overall, almost all investigated works suggest that projected climate change will influence landslides in Europe; half of them predict an increase in the frequency of landslides (mainly shallow), and one-third project a reduction in the activity of deep-seated movements. Further research and related international efforts are advisable, especially in less studied regions, to increase knowledge and properly assess uncertainties in the complex interplay between climate change and landslides.</p>

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How will the projected climate change influence rainfall-induced landslides in Europe? A review of modelling approaches

  • Stefano Luigi Gariano,
  • Guido Rianna

摘要

Given ongoing global warming, rigorous investigations of the effects of climate change on landslides are needed, demanding datasets at proper spatial and temporal scales, tailored theoretical approaches, and large computational efforts. Recently, there has been an increase in studies using landslide models constrained by climate projections (i.e. modelling approaches) to estimate future landslide behaviour and investigate the landslide-climate change relationships at different spatial scales, particularly in Europe. Searching in the most authoritative scientific databases, we review 50 papers published in the period 1998–2023 and dealing with the use of climate and landslide modelling chains in European study areas. We analyse all components of the modelling chains, with a particular focus on the future scenarios adopted. A variety of methods, models and tools, and several climatic and geo-morpho-mechanical variables are considered, with an increase of regional-scale analyses in recent years. Physically based approaches are most common in slope-scale works, while data-driven analyses dominate basin-scale works. Up-to-date simulation ensembles are often used to estimate modelling uncertainties, but paying little attention to the selection of models and the consequences of such choices. Overall, almost all investigated works suggest that projected climate change will influence landslides in Europe; half of them predict an increase in the frequency of landslides (mainly shallow), and one-third project a reduction in the activity of deep-seated movements. Further research and related international efforts are advisable, especially in less studied regions, to increase knowledge and properly assess uncertainties in the complex interplay between climate change and landslides.