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<p>Monitoring species distribution and dynamics is essential for conservation strategies. While monitoring efforts often focus on rare or endangered species, common and widely distributed species are often neglected, leading to insufficiently structured data to efficiently estimate spatio-temporal occupancy changes. Over the past 20 years, citizen science and recording portals have provided a large amount of opportunistic data collected without monitoring programmes. However, such data are often associated with geographical biases and non-standardised monitoring efforts. To address these issues, dynamic occupancy models help mitigate these biases by accounting for variability in detection probabilities, spatial heterogeneity, and temporal fluctuations in data generation. In this study, we used dynamic occupancy models to address the suspected decline of a common and widely distributed lizard in Wallonia (Belgium): the common lizard (<i>Zootoca vivipara</i>). Using a 1 × 1&#xa0;km grid (16230 grid cells), we investigated the role of topographic and land use variables on occupancy, extinction and colonisation probabilities over 14 years (2010–2023). Initial occupancy is higher in uplands covered by forests and diversified grasslands, yet the species’ range declined by 11.61%, with clear spatial patterns. The extinction probability was higher in lowlands harbouring low forest and diversified grassland cover, while colonisation probability was higher in elevated areas covered by extensive diversified grasslands. Our study supports the suspected decline of the common lizard in Wallonia and highlights key topographic and land use factors affecting dynamic parameters. We suggest a broader application of this methodology to track species distribution shifts using opportunistic citizen science data. These results underline the need for conservation actions to preserve suitable habitats for the common lizard in lowland areas. In addition, we highlight the need for more standardised monitoring programmes targeting common and widely distributed species.</p>

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Losing the common: evidence of long-term decline of a widely distributed and cold-adapted Lizard using opportunistic citizen-science data

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月14日

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  • Thomas Duchesne,
  • Olivier Lourdais,
  • Éric Graitson

摘要

Monitoring species distribution and dynamics is essential for conservation strategies. While monitoring efforts often focus on rare or endangered species, common and widely distributed species are often neglected, leading to insufficiently structured data to efficiently estimate spatio-temporal occupancy changes. Over the past 20 years, citizen science and recording portals have provided a large amount of opportunistic data collected without monitoring programmes. However, such data are often associated with geographical biases and non-standardised monitoring efforts. To address these issues, dynamic occupancy models help mitigate these biases by accounting for variability in detection probabilities, spatial heterogeneity, and temporal fluctuations in data generation. In this study, we used dynamic occupancy models to address the suspected decline of a common and widely distributed lizard in Wallonia (Belgium): the common lizard (Zootoca vivipara). Using a 1 × 1 km grid (16230 grid cells), we investigated the role of topographic and land use variables on occupancy, extinction and colonisation probabilities over 14 years (2010–2023). Initial occupancy is higher in uplands covered by forests and diversified grasslands, yet the species’ range declined by 11.61%, with clear spatial patterns. The extinction probability was higher in lowlands harbouring low forest and diversified grassland cover, while colonisation probability was higher in elevated areas covered by extensive diversified grasslands. Our study supports the suspected decline of the common lizard in Wallonia and highlights key topographic and land use factors affecting dynamic parameters. We suggest a broader application of this methodology to track species distribution shifts using opportunistic citizen science data. These results underline the need for conservation actions to preserve suitable habitats for the common lizard in lowland areas. In addition, we highlight the need for more standardised monitoring programmes targeting common and widely distributed species.