Understanding the patterns of livestock predation by wild carnivores for conservation planning in Kupwara, Kashmir Himalaya

Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) poses a significant challenge to biodiversity conservation and rural livelihoods, particularly in regions where human activities overlap with wildlife habitats. This study examines livestock predation patterns and economic losses caused by the Himalayan black bear (Ursus thibetanus), Himalayan brown bear (Ursus arctos isabellinus), and common leopard (Panthera pardus) in the Kupwara region of the Western Himalayas, India. Over two years (2021–2022), data were collected from 32 villages in Handwara and Sogam-Lolab subdivisions through interviews with 258 respondents, including 50 herders. A total of 178 predation incidents were recorded, resulting in the loss of 287 livestock and an estimated economic impact of $42,683 USD. Sheep were the most frequently targeted species (75%), followed by goats (13%), cattle (9%), and horses (2%). Predation was most common in spring (55.7%) and summer (26.6%). Black bears were responsible for 69% of kills, leopards for 27%, and brown bears for 3%. Significant differences were observed in predation patterns by livestock age class and species, with sheep and young livestock being particularly vulnerable. Spatial analysis identified Handwara and Dorosa as predation hotspots using Kernel Density Estimation (KDE). The study highlights unattended grazing and poorly constructed corrals as key factors driving predation. Community-preferred mitigation strategies included financial compensation, removal of conflict animals, and incentives for constructing predator-proof enclosures. These findings emphasize the importance of targeted interventions, such as seasonal management strategies, improved livestock practices, and community engagement, to mitigate livestock predation risks.