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<p>The discontinuation of roundwood production and the change to a ‘carbon farming’ business model in beech (<i>Fagus sylvatica</i>)–dominated commercial forest enterprises have been proposed as a potential climate‐mitigation strategy. This study employs a forest economic simulation model over a 200-year horizon to compare a managed business-as-usual (BAU) scenario with a forest set-aside (FSA) scenario with ‘carbon farming’ instead of roundwood production. Climate-sensitive survival probabilities, parameterised under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, have been incorporated to reflect future mortality risks. Under FSA, additional carbon sequestration across aboveground and belowground biomass, and coarse woody debris reaches 740 t CO<sub>2</sub> ha<sup>−1</sup> (RCP 4.5) and 700 t CO<sub>2</sub> ha<sup>−1</sup> (RCP 8.5) when compared to BAU. Opportunity costs, measured as forgone net roundwood revenues, remain relatively constant over time as additional sequestration rates decline. Monetising sequestration via carbon credits yields break-even CO<sub>2</sub> prices of approximately €33 t<sup>−1</sup> CO<sub>2</sub> at a 1% discount rate, €28 t<sup>−1</sup> CO<sub>2</sub> at 1.5%, and €25 t<sup>−1</sup> CO<sub>2</sub> at 2%.</p><p>The results indicate that the set-aside of roundwood production in beech-dominated forest enterprises can deliver significant long-term carbon gains but entails temporal trade-offs between early climate benefits and sustained income from roundwood utilisation. The study’s outcomes aim to guide forest owners, policymakers, and other stakeholders involved in forest policy, carbon sequestration, and forest conservation in making informed decisions about discontinuing roundwood production in beech forest enterprises as a carbon sequestration strategy, while also providing estimates of the associated opportunity costs. Overall, this research contributes to the scientific understanding of the complex interactions between carbon sequestration and economic factors, offering a case study from Germany that can serve as a valuable reference for decision-making in other Central European regions with beech forest enterprises facing similar challenges.</p>

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Balancing carbon and costs: unveiling the carbon sequestration potential and opportunity costs of set-aside beech-dominated forest enterprises

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月10日

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  • Cornelius Regelmann,
  • Marlen Brinkord,
  • Joachim Rock,
  • Björn Seintsch,
  • Matthias Dieter

摘要

The discontinuation of roundwood production and the change to a ‘carbon farming’ business model in beech (Fagus sylvatica)–dominated commercial forest enterprises have been proposed as a potential climate‐mitigation strategy. This study employs a forest economic simulation model over a 200-year horizon to compare a managed business-as-usual (BAU) scenario with a forest set-aside (FSA) scenario with ‘carbon farming’ instead of roundwood production. Climate-sensitive survival probabilities, parameterised under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, have been incorporated to reflect future mortality risks. Under FSA, additional carbon sequestration across aboveground and belowground biomass, and coarse woody debris reaches 740 t CO2 ha−1 (RCP 4.5) and 700 t CO2 ha−1 (RCP 8.5) when compared to BAU. Opportunity costs, measured as forgone net roundwood revenues, remain relatively constant over time as additional sequestration rates decline. Monetising sequestration via carbon credits yields break-even CO2 prices of approximately €33 t−1 CO2 at a 1% discount rate, €28 t−1 CO2 at 1.5%, and €25 t−1 CO2 at 2%.

The results indicate that the set-aside of roundwood production in beech-dominated forest enterprises can deliver significant long-term carbon gains but entails temporal trade-offs between early climate benefits and sustained income from roundwood utilisation. The study’s outcomes aim to guide forest owners, policymakers, and other stakeholders involved in forest policy, carbon sequestration, and forest conservation in making informed decisions about discontinuing roundwood production in beech forest enterprises as a carbon sequestration strategy, while also providing estimates of the associated opportunity costs. Overall, this research contributes to the scientific understanding of the complex interactions between carbon sequestration and economic factors, offering a case study from Germany that can serve as a valuable reference for decision-making in other Central European regions with beech forest enterprises facing similar challenges.