Global Olive Oil Trade: Competitive Dynamics and Export Forecasts (2024–2030)
摘要
The competitiveness and development of the global olive oil market are evaluated based on an analysis of the trends in export volume and revenue of the main producing countries. The study uses an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast model for the market dynamics over a period of 7 years, using Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database (FAOSTAT) data from 1961 to 2023. The results indicate an oligopolistic structure with five-firm concentration ratios (CR5) higher than 80% and Herfindahl–Hirschman index (HHI) values ranging from 0.226 to 0.256, stressing the concentrated market power of the five largest producers. The analysis shows a changing dynamic: Spain remains in a leading position, while Italy presents a strategic problem with decreasing shares of volume and revenue. At the same time, other countries are heading in different directions. Tunisia is making significant progress in branded exports, and Greece is commanding substantial price premiums with high-quality positioning. Portugal is at risk of stagnation, while Türkiye, in sixth place, is far behind with a large difference between its volume and revenue shares. Structural imbalances will force major producers away from bulk exports to high-value branding. As climate change and volatility in supplies increase market risks, future competitiveness will depend more and more on strategies driven by quality and the management of scarcity. Therefore, strategic regulation and value-added development should be the top priorities for policymakers and industry stakeholders to curb instability and drive global transformation towards a sustainable and value-driven industry.