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<p>Guava (<i>Psidium guajava</i>&#xa0;L.) is an important tropical fruit crop in Bangladesh with substantial potential for enhancing agricultural diversification, rural income, and nutritional security. This study investigated the production trends, regional variation, and prospects of guava cultivation and evaluated its contribution to the national economy using division-wise time-series data from 2010–2011 to 2023–2024. Secondary data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics were analyzed, and an ARIMA (0,1,0) model was applied for forecasting. The results indicate a&#xa0;steady increase in total guava production despite fluctuations in cultivated area, suggesting productivity improvements. Chittagong emerged as the leading producer, followed by Rajshahi and Dhaka, while Sylhet recorded the lowest output. Forecasting performance showed comparatively strong model fit in Chittagong and Rajshahi divisions, with acceptable error measures across regions. Although challenges such as climatic variability, limited value chain development, and postharvest losses persist, the findings confirm significant untapped potential in guava production. Strategic policy support, improved varieties, and strengthened market infrastructure could enhance its role in sustainable agricultural growth and the Bangladesh national economy.</p>

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Potential and Prospects of Guava Production in Bangladesh and Its Contribution to the National Economy

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月7日

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  • Sayed Mohibul Hossen,
  • Tanvir

摘要

Guava (Psidium guajava L.) is an important tropical fruit crop in Bangladesh with substantial potential for enhancing agricultural diversification, rural income, and nutritional security. This study investigated the production trends, regional variation, and prospects of guava cultivation and evaluated its contribution to the national economy using division-wise time-series data from 2010–2011 to 2023–2024. Secondary data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics were analyzed, and an ARIMA (0,1,0) model was applied for forecasting. The results indicate a steady increase in total guava production despite fluctuations in cultivated area, suggesting productivity improvements. Chittagong emerged as the leading producer, followed by Rajshahi and Dhaka, while Sylhet recorded the lowest output. Forecasting performance showed comparatively strong model fit in Chittagong and Rajshahi divisions, with acceptable error measures across regions. Although challenges such as climatic variability, limited value chain development, and postharvest losses persist, the findings confirm significant untapped potential in guava production. Strategic policy support, improved varieties, and strengthened market infrastructure could enhance its role in sustainable agricultural growth and the Bangladesh national economy.