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<p>Almond (<i>Prunus dulcis</i>) and Walnut (<i>Juglans regia</i>&#xa0;L.) are nutritionally and economically valuable, but their production in India is underutilized. Despite being a&#xa0;major consumer, India’s domestic supply is insufficient. Himachal Pradesh, with its favorable climate (900–3,000 m elevation), is ideal for their cultivation. The secondary data for and and production of Almond and Walnut was taken for the period 20&#xa0;years (2002–2021). CAGR for Almond area and production were −1.22 and −1.79%, respectively. CAGR for Walnut area and production were −0.372 and 2.993%, respectively signifying the decreasing trend due to underutilization. ARIMA (0, 2, 1) was the best model for forecasting almond area (AIC: 207.77, RMSE: 64.04). ARIMA and exponential smoothing models were applied to the time series for forecasting and best model was selected based on AIC, RMSE and Ljung-Box statistic. Holt’s exponential smoothing yielded the best fit for almond production (AIC: 273.14, RMSE: 340.614). SES was best for walnut area (AIC: 287.607, RMSE: 255.265). Holt’s exponential smoothing was best for walnut production (AIC: 278.082, RMSE: 494.810). Forecasts were made for five years (2022–2027) using ARIMA (0, 2, 1) for area under Almond, SES with bootstrap forecasting for area under Walnut and Holt’s linear exponential smoothing for production of Almond and Walnut. Forecasts for 2022–2027 (4546.86 Ha, 957.447 MT for Almond area and production respectively in 2024–25 and 4457 Ha .6684, 4818.77 MT for Walmut area and production respectively for 2024–25) highlighted stable walnut production and moderate declines in almond cultivation. Improved market infrastructure, better farming practices, and policy support could enhance production and export potential.</p>

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Statistical Insights into Almond and Walnut Cultivation Trends in Himachal Pradesh

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月5日

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  • Varnika Sharma,
  • Ashu Chandel,
  • R. K. Gupta,
  • Anju Sharma,
  • Vijit Gupta,
  • Neha Mishra,
  • Priyank Sharma,
  • Vishani Thakur,
  • Sukhdeep Kaur

摘要

Almond (Prunus dulcis) and Walnut (Juglans regia L.) are nutritionally and economically valuable, but their production in India is underutilized. Despite being a major consumer, India’s domestic supply is insufficient. Himachal Pradesh, with its favorable climate (900–3,000 m elevation), is ideal for their cultivation. The secondary data for and and production of Almond and Walnut was taken for the period 20 years (2002–2021). CAGR for Almond area and production were −1.22 and −1.79%, respectively. CAGR for Walnut area and production were −0.372 and 2.993%, respectively signifying the decreasing trend due to underutilization. ARIMA (0, 2, 1) was the best model for forecasting almond area (AIC: 207.77, RMSE: 64.04). ARIMA and exponential smoothing models were applied to the time series for forecasting and best model was selected based on AIC, RMSE and Ljung-Box statistic. Holt’s exponential smoothing yielded the best fit for almond production (AIC: 273.14, RMSE: 340.614). SES was best for walnut area (AIC: 287.607, RMSE: 255.265). Holt’s exponential smoothing was best for walnut production (AIC: 278.082, RMSE: 494.810). Forecasts were made for five years (2022–2027) using ARIMA (0, 2, 1) for area under Almond, SES with bootstrap forecasting for area under Walnut and Holt’s linear exponential smoothing for production of Almond and Walnut. Forecasts for 2022–2027 (4546.86 Ha, 957.447 MT for Almond area and production respectively in 2024–25 and 4457 Ha .6684, 4818.77 MT for Walmut area and production respectively for 2024–25) highlighted stable walnut production and moderate declines in almond cultivation. Improved market infrastructure, better farming practices, and policy support could enhance production and export potential.