Assessing the Effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Apricot Yield in Malatya Province, Türkiye

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic phenomenon characterized by cyclical warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases in the tropical Pacific, significantly influencing global temperature, precipitation patterns, and climate variability. Understanding the ENSO effect on crop yields is crucial for ensuring agricultural sustainability. This study examines the influence of El Niño and La Niña events on apricot yield, a crop of substantial economic importance to Türkiye, particularly in the province of Malatya. Using a 22-year dataset (2000–2021), simple linear regression was employed to determine the relationship between ENSO and apricot yield. Additionally, the study analyzed factors such as late March and April frosts, total precipitation, and winter precipitation to provide further context for the findings. The results reveal a statistically significant relationship between ENSO and apricot yield. Assuming all other factors remain constant, for every one-unit increase in ENSO value, apricot yield per tree decreases by 4.73 kg. Apricot yield typically declines during El Niño years and increases during La Niña years. In neutral years, total precipitation and late spring frosts influence apricot yield; high rainfall correlates with high yields, while low rainfall leads to reduced yields in the province. Therefore, additional irrigation can boost apricot yield during neutral years. Consequently, there is a significant correlation between apricot yield and ENSO years, indicating that the yields can be predicted 1 year before the growing season. By using the ENSO index as a predictor for future estimations, timely measures can be taken against the adverse effects of climate events, thus ensuring production sustainability. Further studies should extend the subject to include other strategic products, longer time series, and production data to better understand ENSO.