Impact of Climatic Variability on Litchi Yields in the Tarai Region of India

Litchi is one of the emerging fruit crops and highly remunerative to growers. The relationship between litchi yield and weather parameters has shown that weather parameters have a significant effect on the yield of litchi. The was a significant positive correlation between yield and the weather variables maximum relative humidity (0.87*), minimum relative humidity (0.84*), and rainfall (0.63) and a negative correlation with evaporation (−085*), maximum temperature (−0.84*), and minimum temperature (−0.14). Stepwise regression analysis between different weather parameters and litchi yield showed significant differences. Maximum relative humidity and minimum relative humidity (Y = −124.85 + 1.94×1 + 0.57×5; R² = 0.87**) explained approximately 87% of the variance. The maximum relative humidity, evaporation, and minimum relative humidity parameters explained 90% of the variance (Y = −63.81 + 1.65×1 − 6.60×3 + 0.32×5; R² = 0.90**), while maximum relative humidity, evaporation, minimum relative humidity, and maximum temperature (Y = 1710.5 − 4.68×1 − 43.21×3 − 2.82×5 − 32.88×7; R² = 0.98**) explained 98% of the variance in litchi yield. The prediction models were further validated using weather parameters and yield data collected in 2021. The root mean square error values varied between 0.203 and 0.518, which shows that the models are accurate and acceptable.