Climate change and the future of the endemic Ethiopian Siskin: a looming extinction crisis

Ethiopian Siskin, a common and easily recognizable endemic finch limited in the Ethiopian highlands. The distribution of the Ethiopian Siskin has not yet been investigated using species distribution models (SDMs). Hence, this study aimed to assess the current status and predict areas that are likely to become suitable for the Ethiopian Siskin in the future under the four climate scenarios for the periods of 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100 using the MaxEnt model. A total of 410 localities were obtained from the field observation data record and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database. Bioclimatic variables data were retrieved from the WorldClim database, and were tested for collinearity before fitting the model. The area under the curve of the receiver-operating characteristic was used to evaluate the performance of the MaxEnt model. The results reveal that elevation, precipitation in the warmest quarter of the year, driest month, and coldest quarter of the year were found to have the strongest influence on the species distributions. Northern, central, and southern Ethiopian highlands were projected to continue to serve as the potential habitat of the Ethiopian Siskin. The findings show that only a small portion of Ethiopia (nearly 3%) meets the environmental requirements of the Ethiopian Siskin in highlands. Our results identified the Ethiopian Siskin to be a climate sensitive species that may potentially face extinction risk. Therefore, it is urgently needed to assess conservation strategies. To develop effective conservation strategies, a comprehensive species-based study is necessary, encompassing population size, breeding ecology, and potential threats. Conservation efforts should focus on Oromia and Amhara regions to protect endemic Ethiopian Siskin and other highland birds from climate change.