A rapid increase of groundwater in 2021 over the North China Plain from GPS and GRACE observations

Groundwater withdrawal and recharge lead to changes in terrestrial hydrological loads, which in turn cause surface deformation. Based on poroelastic response and elastic loading theory, the 24 Global Positioning System (GPS) stations on the North China Plain (NCP) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission and its follow-on (GRACE/GRACE-FO) are first integrated to quantify the spatial–temporal changes in surface deformation and groundwater storage (GWS) during 2011–2022. The results show that the trends of GWS in the three periods of 2011–2017, 2018–2020, and 2021–2022 were  − 2.56 ± 0.33 mm/yr,  − 4.72 ± 1.74 mm/yr, and 11.76 ± 4.18 mm/yr, respectively. Most of the GPS stations showed a significant negative correlation between GWS and surface deformation under the elastic loading theory. In 2021, surface subsidence of more than 5 mm was experienced by 94% of the GPS stations, and 58% experienced more than 10 mm, further confirming that the South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) effectively replenishes groundwater resources in the NCP. The SNWD, precipitation, and human activity were the three principal factors influencing the groundwater in the NCP. SNWD effectively mitigated the continuous decrease of groundwater in the NCP.