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<p>Geopolitical risk (GPR) is commonly seen as destabilizing for trade and macroeconomic stability, yet its potential to spur energy technology innovation remains underexplored in a world increasingly defined by technological leadership. I revisit the relationship between GPR and government energy research, development, and demonstration (RD&amp;D) budgets using panel data for 20 advanced and emerging countries over 1974–2023. To address endogeneity, I instrument GPR using variation in strategic alliances and diplomatic alignment measured by United Nations voting. I find that higher GPR increases RD&amp;D budgets, with larger effects in higher-CO₂-emitting countries and weaker effects in resource-dependent countries. Effects are also more pronounced in advanced countries particularly for nuclear technologies, whereas emerging countries respond mainly in fossil-fuel and renewable technologies. Results remain robust to controls for major geopolitical events and to outlier treatments. </p>

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Do Geopolitical Risks Fuel Energy Innovation?

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月7日

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  • Yselle Malah-Kuete

摘要

Geopolitical risk (GPR) is commonly seen as destabilizing for trade and macroeconomic stability, yet its potential to spur energy technology innovation remains underexplored in a world increasingly defined by technological leadership. I revisit the relationship between GPR and government energy research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) budgets using panel data for 20 advanced and emerging countries over 1974–2023. To address endogeneity, I instrument GPR using variation in strategic alliances and diplomatic alignment measured by United Nations voting. I find that higher GPR increases RD&D budgets, with larger effects in higher-CO₂-emitting countries and weaker effects in resource-dependent countries. Effects are also more pronounced in advanced countries particularly for nuclear technologies, whereas emerging countries respond mainly in fossil-fuel and renewable technologies. Results remain robust to controls for major geopolitical events and to outlier treatments.