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<p>We examine the firm-level effects of temporary safeguard import tariffs implemented by Ecuador in 2015–2017. The unexpected safeguards affected about one-third of imports, including intermediate inputs and final goods, creating varying exposure among firms and industries due to their unique import profiles. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we analyze immediate, short-run, and medium-run effects on importing and local non-importing firms. While importing firms experienced temporary negative effects-reduced import growth, sales, and input demand-that disappeared after the safeguards ended, local non-importing firms suffered persistent adverse impacts through their supply chains, particularly in non-import-competing industries.</p>

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The contractionary effects of protectionist trade policy

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月22日

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  • Carlos Uribe-Terán,
  • Diego F. Grijalva,
  • Ivan Gachet

摘要

We examine the firm-level effects of temporary safeguard import tariffs implemented by Ecuador in 2015–2017. The unexpected safeguards affected about one-third of imports, including intermediate inputs and final goods, creating varying exposure among firms and industries due to their unique import profiles. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we analyze immediate, short-run, and medium-run effects on importing and local non-importing firms. While importing firms experienced temporary negative effects-reduced import growth, sales, and input demand-that disappeared after the safeguards ended, local non-importing firms suffered persistent adverse impacts through their supply chains, particularly in non-import-competing industries.