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<p>In this article, we employed firm-level data from France and a difference-in-differences approach to examine how input shortages propagate through global value chains, using the Tohoku earthquake as a natural experiment. Our findings reveal an 8% relative decrease in imports for French firms sourcing inputs from Japan, with more substantial declines for those highly reliant on Japanese suppliers. This is coupled with a 12.8% relative increase in imports from China for these exposed firms. Additionally, we discover that this transition is primarily driven by the top 5% of large firms and is prominently observed within the automotive sector. Regarding the transmission of input shortages through the global supply chain, we find that this shock only affects the exports of firms with the lowest levels of inventory, exhibiting variations across sectors and a time-dependent pattern. Surprisingly, these affected firms have not adjusted their inventory strategies from just-in-time practices to safety stocks.</p>

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Supply chain disruptions: firm-level evidence from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月7日

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  • Lucas Zimmer

摘要

In this article, we employed firm-level data from France and a difference-in-differences approach to examine how input shortages propagate through global value chains, using the Tohoku earthquake as a natural experiment. Our findings reveal an 8% relative decrease in imports for French firms sourcing inputs from Japan, with more substantial declines for those highly reliant on Japanese suppliers. This is coupled with a 12.8% relative increase in imports from China for these exposed firms. Additionally, we discover that this transition is primarily driven by the top 5% of large firms and is prominently observed within the automotive sector. Regarding the transmission of input shortages through the global supply chain, we find that this shock only affects the exports of firms with the lowest levels of inventory, exhibiting variations across sectors and a time-dependent pattern. Surprisingly, these affected firms have not adjusted their inventory strategies from just-in-time practices to safety stocks.