The characteristics and possible mechanisms of the anomalously high sea levels observed along the South China Coast in 2017
摘要
In this study, based on the data from 10 tide gauge stations and satellite altimeter data along the South China coast (SCC) from 1980 to 2022, we analyze the characteristics of sea level change in the SCS during this period, with a particular focus on the anomalously high sea level event of 2017 and its underlying mechanisms. The findings indicate that sea levels along the SCC exhibited a fluctuating upward trend from 1980 to 2022, with an average rise rate of 3.43 mm/yr. Notably, sea levels reached their highest recorded value since 1980 in 2017, exceeding the long-term mean by 83.83 mm. The linear estimate of the mean sea level is 46.01 mm in 2017, accounting for about 54.9% of the highest sea level anomalies (SLA) (83.83 mm). Specifically, in October 2017, sea level along the coast rose to 116 mm above its long-term October mean, accounting for the largest single-month contribution to the yearly extreme high-water event. This event is driven by the combined influences of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), monsoonal activity, sea level pressure (SLP) variations, storm surge events, coastal currents, and steric effects. Among these factors, La Niña has a 12.8% contribution of the highest SLA, the PDO phase transition from warm to cool has a 10.2% contribution. The storm surge induced by Typhoon Khanun, the positive anomaly of northeasterly winds during the monsoon transition, which contributes 13.5% of the anomalous sea level rise (SLR) along the SCC in October 2017.