<p>The East African regional climate system is linked with the ocean energetics variability associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in conjunction with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which develops over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The ocean off East Africa experiences active strong dynamics variations throughout the year due to presence of thermal, geographical and topographical characteristics in the region. However, there are no systematic studies for the upper ocean dynamics variability off East Africa, the parameter which determines strength of air-sea interaction during IOD events in relations to warm ENSO (El Niño) and cold ENSO (La Niña) events. Using regional ocean model in support of satellite data, the upper ocean dynamics variability off East Africa has been studied by capturing sea surface height (SSH) anomalies during IOD, El Niño and/or La Niña events. When positive IOD events led El Niño events, increased SSH occurred in the region mainly in November and January of the following year of the events. Such increased SSH anomalies were more enhanced in intensity and spatial coverage when the positive IOD and El Niño events coincided. Such signals were mainly driven by the external forcing which might be related to propagating from east of the domain in addition to buoyant surface fluxes related to surface heart fluxes. Due to increased sea surface temperature in the tropical western Indian Ocean when the positive IOD and El Niño events coincided, the ocean off the East Africa becomes more buoyant leading to negative (downward) buoyancy flux. Meanwhile, external forces play the secondary roles followed by winds. The opposite situation occurs when the negative IOD events lead the La Niña events as well as when these events coincide. Such knowledge is crucial for planning climate management activities in the East African region and Africa.</p>

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Numerical modelling of the upper ocean dynamics off East Africa during the Indian Ocean Dipole in relation to El Niño and La Niña climate scenarios

  • Majuto Clement Manyilizu

摘要

The East African regional climate system is linked with the ocean energetics variability associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in conjunction with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which develops over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The ocean off East Africa experiences active strong dynamics variations throughout the year due to presence of thermal, geographical and topographical characteristics in the region. However, there are no systematic studies for the upper ocean dynamics variability off East Africa, the parameter which determines strength of air-sea interaction during IOD events in relations to warm ENSO (El Niño) and cold ENSO (La Niña) events. Using regional ocean model in support of satellite data, the upper ocean dynamics variability off East Africa has been studied by capturing sea surface height (SSH) anomalies during IOD, El Niño and/or La Niña events. When positive IOD events led El Niño events, increased SSH occurred in the region mainly in November and January of the following year of the events. Such increased SSH anomalies were more enhanced in intensity and spatial coverage when the positive IOD and El Niño events coincided. Such signals were mainly driven by the external forcing which might be related to propagating from east of the domain in addition to buoyant surface fluxes related to surface heart fluxes. Due to increased sea surface temperature in the tropical western Indian Ocean when the positive IOD and El Niño events coincided, the ocean off the East Africa becomes more buoyant leading to negative (downward) buoyancy flux. Meanwhile, external forces play the secondary roles followed by winds. The opposite situation occurs when the negative IOD events lead the La Niña events as well as when these events coincide. Such knowledge is crucial for planning climate management activities in the East African region and Africa.