Scholarlink

<p>This study evaluated the performance of a high-resolution Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Modelling (CAOM) system, that integrates the WRF–3DPWP models, to simulate intense tropical cyclones (TCs) that formed over the Bay of Bengal. Five major cyclones-Phailin (2013), Hudhud (2014), Vardah (2016), Titli (2018), and Mocha (2023) were simulated using NCEP FNL data through ten experiments comprising a control run (WRF-standalone) and coupled (CAOM) configuration for a 96-hour forecast. The study conducted a comprehensive assessment of storm track, intensity, rapid intensification, precipitation, radiative fluxes, and storm structural characteristics using nine observational datasets, including IMD best track data, Doppler Weather Radar (DWR), GPM, CIRA, and OAFlux. Simulations with CAOM demonstrated substantial improvements over the control runs, with simulated track errors reduced by 7–21% and mean absolute errors in maximum surface wind speed (MSWS) and central sea level pressure (CSLP) reduced by 30% and 29% on Days 3–4, respectively. Rapid intensification events of TCs predicted by CAOM closely matched the IMD best track data. Further, the simulations of dynamic and thermodynamic variables and storm structure, such as convergence /divergence, air temperature anomaly, surface wind speed, and 24-hour accumulated rainfall, showed better agreement with observations, particularly for Cyclones Hudhud and Titli. Air-sea fluxes were represented well in the coupled model simulations that closely matched with OAFlux estimates and in regulation with approximately 35% in the forecast period of Cyclone Hudhud. Model predicted sea temperature and salinity variations correlated well with SST obtained from satellite product and Argo gridded datasets in the upper ocean, indicating a more significant oceanic response to Hudhud compared to Titli owing to its higher intensity. Various statistical metrics (TE = 105&#xa0;km, RMSE = 9.25&#xa0;m/s, CC = 0.80, BS = 0.01, CSI = 0.8) indicate that the CAOM had a better forecasting performance compared to standalone WRF. Overall, the CAOM framework showed a greater potential to enhance cyclone forecasting and study the oceanic responses, offering a better support to operational disaster management and coastal resilience planning.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

A numerical study on the oceanic response to intense tropical storms over the Bay of Bengal using a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月24日

查看全文
  • Koteshwaramma Thatiparthi,
  • Subbareddy Bonthu,
  • Venkata Ramu Ch.,
  • Prasad K. Bhaskaran,
  • Kantha Rao Bhimala,
  • Kuvar Satya Singh

摘要

This study evaluated the performance of a high-resolution Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Modelling (CAOM) system, that integrates the WRF–3DPWP models, to simulate intense tropical cyclones (TCs) that formed over the Bay of Bengal. Five major cyclones-Phailin (2013), Hudhud (2014), Vardah (2016), Titli (2018), and Mocha (2023) were simulated using NCEP FNL data through ten experiments comprising a control run (WRF-standalone) and coupled (CAOM) configuration for a 96-hour forecast. The study conducted a comprehensive assessment of storm track, intensity, rapid intensification, precipitation, radiative fluxes, and storm structural characteristics using nine observational datasets, including IMD best track data, Doppler Weather Radar (DWR), GPM, CIRA, and OAFlux. Simulations with CAOM demonstrated substantial improvements over the control runs, with simulated track errors reduced by 7–21% and mean absolute errors in maximum surface wind speed (MSWS) and central sea level pressure (CSLP) reduced by 30% and 29% on Days 3–4, respectively. Rapid intensification events of TCs predicted by CAOM closely matched the IMD best track data. Further, the simulations of dynamic and thermodynamic variables and storm structure, such as convergence /divergence, air temperature anomaly, surface wind speed, and 24-hour accumulated rainfall, showed better agreement with observations, particularly for Cyclones Hudhud and Titli. Air-sea fluxes were represented well in the coupled model simulations that closely matched with OAFlux estimates and in regulation with approximately 35% in the forecast period of Cyclone Hudhud. Model predicted sea temperature and salinity variations correlated well with SST obtained from satellite product and Argo gridded datasets in the upper ocean, indicating a more significant oceanic response to Hudhud compared to Titli owing to its higher intensity. Various statistical metrics (TE = 105 km, RMSE = 9.25 m/s, CC = 0.80, BS = 0.01, CSI = 0.8) indicate that the CAOM had a better forecasting performance compared to standalone WRF. Overall, the CAOM framework showed a greater potential to enhance cyclone forecasting and study the oceanic responses, offering a better support to operational disaster management and coastal resilience planning.