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<p>Plastic waste poses a serious environmental challenge in rapidly urbanizing cities, particularly where informal waste collectors dominate material recovery. In many Global South cities, including Indonesia, these actors play a critical role in plastic recycling yet remain weakly integrated into formal waste management systems. This study examines the contribution of the informal sector to circular plastic waste management in Balikpapan, Indonesia, using a system dynamic modeling approach. Three policy scenarios are simulated over a ten-year period (2022–2033): Business as Usual (BAU), moderate intervention, and optimistic intervention. The model analyzes plastic material flows, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the economic performance of key informal actors, including scavengers, scrap dealers, and middlemen. The scenarios differ in levels of source separation, institutional integration, and technological adoption, such as Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) and Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF) systems. Results indicate that the optimistic scenario delivers the strongest outcomes, reducing landfill-bound plastic waste by up to 99% and GHG emissions by up to 74% compared with BAU. Economic performance also improves substantially, with scrap dealers and middlemen achieving effectiveness levels above 90%. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of structured integration of informal waste actors for environmentally and economically sustainable urban plastic waste management.</p>

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Integrating the informal sector into urban plastic waste system: a system dynamics study of environmental and economic impacts

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月7日

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  • Muhammad Ma’arij Harfadli,
  • Bimastyaji Surya Ramadan,
  • Mega Ulimaz,
  • Toru Matsumoto

摘要

Plastic waste poses a serious environmental challenge in rapidly urbanizing cities, particularly where informal waste collectors dominate material recovery. In many Global South cities, including Indonesia, these actors play a critical role in plastic recycling yet remain weakly integrated into formal waste management systems. This study examines the contribution of the informal sector to circular plastic waste management in Balikpapan, Indonesia, using a system dynamic modeling approach. Three policy scenarios are simulated over a ten-year period (2022–2033): Business as Usual (BAU), moderate intervention, and optimistic intervention. The model analyzes plastic material flows, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the economic performance of key informal actors, including scavengers, scrap dealers, and middlemen. The scenarios differ in levels of source separation, institutional integration, and technological adoption, such as Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) and Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF) systems. Results indicate that the optimistic scenario delivers the strongest outcomes, reducing landfill-bound plastic waste by up to 99% and GHG emissions by up to 74% compared with BAU. Economic performance also improves substantially, with scrap dealers and middlemen achieving effectiveness levels above 90%. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of structured integration of informal waste actors for environmentally and economically sustainable urban plastic waste management.