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Background <p>Using data from the GBD 2023 database, we analyzed temporal trends in the burden of kidney cancer in China from 1999 to 2023, including incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and risk-attributable burden, with the aim of informing future prevention and control strategies.</p> Method <p>Using Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 estimates, we summarized all-age numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) by sex. Joinpoint log-linear models calculated the average annual percent change (AAPC), and risk-attributable deaths and DALYs were profiled for 2023. And we conducted a brief sensitivity comparison of trends for 2010–2019 and 2019–2023 for both sexes combined. All results are model-based estimates and are reported with uncertainty intervals (UIs).</p> Result <p>In 2023, kidney cancer in China accounted for 348,196 prevalent cases (95% UI: 255,999–478,478), 61,323 incident cases (47,511–82,874), 21,784 deaths (16,907–29,113), and 582,244 DALYs (450,635–790,768). Between 1990 and 2023, age-standardized incidence and prevalence increased (AAPC: 1.42% and 2.35%), whereas the age-standardized DALY rate declined modestly (AAPC: −0.18%) and mortality showed a slight rise. Males consistently bore higher incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY burdens than females. In 2023, individuals aged 50–74 years contributed the largest absolute burden, while those aged over 75 years had the highest mortality and DALY rates. Incidence increased across all age groups, fastest in those aged 15–49 years (AAPC: 2.89%), whereas prevalence rose most in those aged over 75 years (AAPC: 3.86%). Decomposition analysis identified population ageing and epidemiological change as the main drivers of increasing burden. Smoking remained the leading contributor to mortality and DALY rates, followed by high body mass index, with minimal contribution from trichloroethylene. During 2010–2019, mortality and DALY rates declined and decreased further in 2019–2023, while incidence and prevalence incline in 2010–2019 and decline in 2019–2023.</p> Conclusion <p>Kidney cancer burden in China has risen substantially over the past three decades, driven mainly by population ageing and evolving epidemiological patterns, with marked sex and age disparities and persistent contributions from modifiable risk factors highlighting the need for targeted, evidence-based prevention and health service strategies.</p>

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Trends and etiological profile of kidney cancer in China from 1990 to 2023: an analysis of modifiable risk factors and prevention implications using GBD 2023 estimates

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月29日

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  • Zihao Ye,
  • Hao Wu,
  • Chi Zhang,
  • Ruiyu Wang,
  • Xilin Deng,
  • Enrui Hu,
  • Ziyue Wang,
  • Baoshan Gao

摘要

Background

Using data from the GBD 2023 database, we analyzed temporal trends in the burden of kidney cancer in China from 1999 to 2023, including incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and risk-attributable burden, with the aim of informing future prevention and control strategies.

Method

Using Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 estimates, we summarized all-age numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) by sex. Joinpoint log-linear models calculated the average annual percent change (AAPC), and risk-attributable deaths and DALYs were profiled for 2023. And we conducted a brief sensitivity comparison of trends for 2010–2019 and 2019–2023 for both sexes combined. All results are model-based estimates and are reported with uncertainty intervals (UIs).

Result

In 2023, kidney cancer in China accounted for 348,196 prevalent cases (95% UI: 255,999–478,478), 61,323 incident cases (47,511–82,874), 21,784 deaths (16,907–29,113), and 582,244 DALYs (450,635–790,768). Between 1990 and 2023, age-standardized incidence and prevalence increased (AAPC: 1.42% and 2.35%), whereas the age-standardized DALY rate declined modestly (AAPC: −0.18%) and mortality showed a slight rise. Males consistently bore higher incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY burdens than females. In 2023, individuals aged 50–74 years contributed the largest absolute burden, while those aged over 75 years had the highest mortality and DALY rates. Incidence increased across all age groups, fastest in those aged 15–49 years (AAPC: 2.89%), whereas prevalence rose most in those aged over 75 years (AAPC: 3.86%). Decomposition analysis identified population ageing and epidemiological change as the main drivers of increasing burden. Smoking remained the leading contributor to mortality and DALY rates, followed by high body mass index, with minimal contribution from trichloroethylene. During 2010–2019, mortality and DALY rates declined and decreased further in 2019–2023, while incidence and prevalence incline in 2010–2019 and decline in 2019–2023.

Conclusion

Kidney cancer burden in China has risen substantially over the past three decades, driven mainly by population ageing and evolving epidemiological patterns, with marked sex and age disparities and persistent contributions from modifiable risk factors highlighting the need for targeted, evidence-based prevention and health service strategies.