Circulating tumor DNA predicts recurrence and survival in patients with resectable gastric and gastroesophageal junction cancer

Gastric and gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) cancer represents a significant global health challenge, with high recurrence rates and poor survival outcomes. This study investigates circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) as a biomarker for assessing recurrence risk in patients with resectable gastric and GEJ adenocarcinomas (AC).

Patients with resectable gastric and GEJ AC, undergoing perioperative chemotherapy and surgery, were prospectively enrolled. Serial plasma samples were collected at baseline, after one cycle of chemotherapy, after preoperative chemotherapy, and after surgery. ctDNA was assessed by a ddPCR test (TriMeth), which targets the gastrointestinal cancer-specific methylation patterns of the genes C9orf50, KCNQ5, and CLIP4.

ctDNA analysis was performed on 229 plasma samples from 86 patients. At baseline, ctDNA was detected in 56% of patients, which decreased to 37% following one cycle of chemotherapy, 25% after preoperative chemotherapy and 15% after surgical resection. The presence of ctDNA after one cycle of chemotherapy was associated with reduced recurrence-free survival (RFS) (HR = 2.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33–4.85, p = 0.005) and overall survival (OS) (HR = 2.23, 95% CI 1.07–4.62, p = 0.032). Similarly, ctDNA after surgery was associated with significantly shorter RFS (HR = 6.22, 95% CI 2.39–16.2, p < 0.001) and OS (HR = 6.37, 95% CI 2.10–19.3, p = 0.001). Multivariable regression analysis confirmed ctDNA after surgery as an independent prognostic factor (p < 0.001).

ctDNA analysis has the potential to identify patients at elevated risk of recurrence, thus providing personalized treatment strategies for patients with resectable gastric and GEJ cancer. Further validation in larger cohorts and ctDNA-guided interventions are needed for future clinical use.