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<p>As a core engine of China’s economic and social advancement, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is increasingly strained by escalating resource consumption, demographic pressures, and intensifying environmental challenges. A rigorous scientific assessment of the water-energy-food nexus security (WEFNS) is essential to inform strategic pathways that enhance nexus resilience and support high-quality economic development. To this end, the paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system that captures internal and external influences, and employs structure and parameter learning to build a Bayesian Network (BN) model for assessing WEFNS in the YRD from 2005 to 2023. Subsequent sensitivity analysis and scenario simulations are used to pinpoint critical driving factors and examine prospective evolutionary trajectories. The results show that (1) From 2005 to 2023, WEFNS in the YRD remained at a generally low level but exhibited substantial room for improvement, with a 66% probability of shifting to a medium-high level. (2) The food subsystem exerted the strongest influence on WEFNS, while per capita energy consumption, the share of energy use in the primary industry, total agricultural machinery power, population size, and annual precipitation were also identified as significant determinants of nexus security. These elements primarily affected food security by driving changes in energy consumption, which in turn constrained the security level of the nexus. (3) Individual measures, such as boosting investment in the energy sector and lowering per capita energy consumption, can effectively improve the WEFNS level in the YRD. (4) Scenarios in which the population, per capita GDP growth rate, and annual average precipitation were respectively at medium-low-low, medium-medium-low, and medium-high-low levels were associated with a higher probability of the WEFNS achieving a high level.</p>

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Simulating pathways to achieve water-energy-food nexus security in the Yangtze River Delta

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月27日

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  • Qing Qin,
  • Liang Yuan,
  • Weijun He,
  • Dagmawi Mulugeta Degefu,
  • Xia Wu,
  • Yang Kong,
  • Thomas Stephen Ramsey

摘要

As a core engine of China’s economic and social advancement, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is increasingly strained by escalating resource consumption, demographic pressures, and intensifying environmental challenges. A rigorous scientific assessment of the water-energy-food nexus security (WEFNS) is essential to inform strategic pathways that enhance nexus resilience and support high-quality economic development. To this end, the paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system that captures internal and external influences, and employs structure and parameter learning to build a Bayesian Network (BN) model for assessing WEFNS in the YRD from 2005 to 2023. Subsequent sensitivity analysis and scenario simulations are used to pinpoint critical driving factors and examine prospective evolutionary trajectories. The results show that (1) From 2005 to 2023, WEFNS in the YRD remained at a generally low level but exhibited substantial room for improvement, with a 66% probability of shifting to a medium-high level. (2) The food subsystem exerted the strongest influence on WEFNS, while per capita energy consumption, the share of energy use in the primary industry, total agricultural machinery power, population size, and annual precipitation were also identified as significant determinants of nexus security. These elements primarily affected food security by driving changes in energy consumption, which in turn constrained the security level of the nexus. (3) Individual measures, such as boosting investment in the energy sector and lowering per capita energy consumption, can effectively improve the WEFNS level in the YRD. (4) Scenarios in which the population, per capita GDP growth rate, and annual average precipitation were respectively at medium-low-low, medium-medium-low, and medium-high-low levels were associated with a higher probability of the WEFNS achieving a high level.