<p>Climate change impacts ecosystems, economies, and a wide range of life forms. Agriculture contributes to climate change, but also suffers from its consequences. However, it is difficult to gauge evidence of climate change and the possible consequences for agriculture. In addition, it is still unclear to what agricultural decision makers should do with academic findings in the face of a new normal climate status. This study aims to identify climate change features and estimate current implications for Brazilian subtropical agricultural regions. We collected data on air temperature, precipitation, and aridity index from nine municipalities, covering a large area of southern Brazil. They were selected due to their representation in agricultural production and diverse climates and soils. The methodology analyzed meteorological data from the NASA POWER databases for rural areas from 2003 to 2012, which was compared with a recent period between 2013 and 2022. The data indicated changes in air temperature, rainfall, and aridity index patterns in the recent period. The average air temperature increased by 0.44 <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">${}^{\circ }\text {C}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mmultiscripts> <mrow /> <mrow /> <mo>∘</mo> </mmultiscripts> <mtext>C</mtext> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> month<InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$^{-1}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mmultiscripts> <mrow /> <mrow /> <mrow> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </mmultiscripts> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, and the average precipitation reduced by 0.49 mm month<InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$^{-1}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mmultiscripts> <mrow /> <mrow /> <mrow> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </mmultiscripts> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. Soil aridity increased by about 0.35 for every <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$1~{}^{\circ }\text {C}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mspace width="3.33333pt" /> <mmultiscripts> <mrow /> <mrow /> <mo>∘</mo> </mmultiscripts> <mtext>C</mtext> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> of air temperature rise. Our findings provide evidence that climate change affects subtropical Brazilian crops negatively. Agriculture should be revisited to implement well-known sustainable strategies and to create new ones. Implementing an adequate no-till system, using the early premises and agroecology practices, and using biofertilizers and adapted genetic breeding are some of the new perspectives in Brazilian agriculture.</p>

Evidence of climate change in Brazilian subtropical agricultural areas: a preliminary study

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2026年6月3日

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Luiz Henrique Scarparo Sassi,
Talison Roberto Maurer,
Rafael Rieder,
Mateus Possebon Bortoluzzi,
Claudia Petry,
Edson Campanhola Bortoluzzi

摘要

Climate change impacts ecosystems, economies, and a wide range of life forms. Agriculture contributes to climate change, but also suffers from its consequences. However, it is difficult to gauge evidence of climate change and the possible consequences for agriculture. In addition, it is still unclear to what agricultural decision makers should do with academic findings in the face of a new normal climate status. This study aims to identify climate change features and estimate current implications for Brazilian subtropical agricultural regions. We collected data on air temperature, precipitation, and aridity index from nine municipalities, covering a large area of southern Brazil. They were selected due to their representation in agricultural production and diverse climates and soils. The methodology analyzed meteorological data from the NASA POWER databases for rural areas from 2003 to 2012, which was compared with a recent period between 2013 and 2022. The data indicated changes in air temperature, rainfall, and aridity index patterns in the recent period. The average air temperature increased by 0.44 ${}^{\circ }\text {C}$ $^{\circ} C$ month $^{-1}$ $^{- 1}$ , and the average precipitation reduced by 0.49 mm month $^{-1}$ $^{- 1}$ . Soil aridity increased by about 0.35 for every $1~{}^{\circ }\text {C}$ $1^{\circ} C$ of air temperature rise. Our findings provide evidence that climate change affects subtropical Brazilian crops negatively. Agriculture should be revisited to implement well-known sustainable strategies and to create new ones. Implementing an adequate no-till system, using the early premises and agroecology practices, and using biofertilizers and adapted genetic breeding are some of the new perspectives in Brazilian agriculture.