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<p>Arctic and sub-Arctic communities are experiencing rapid climate change, yet local impacts, experiences, and priorities are not always fully reflected in formal adaptation planning. Conventional approaches often emphasize top-down knowledge transfer, limiting the integration of community perspectives into decision-making. We conducted a survey in Hooper Bay, Alaska, to assess perceptions of 11 forecasted climate change impacts and examine how locally grounded knowledge aligns with scientific projections. Twenty participants rated the perceived likelihood of each impact and their level of concern using a 5-point ordinal scale. Responses were summarized as proportions across ordinal categories and compared descriptively with probability ranges derived from the scientific literature. Perceived likelihood and concern were highest for impacts that are locally observable and directly affect subsistence activities, including long-term sea level rise (80% likelihood, 90% concern), increased storm frequency and intensity (75%, 80%), loss of freshwater sources (75%, 75%), and degradation of nesting waterfowl habitat (65%, 80%). Declining sea ice conditions (65%, 65%) were also widely recognized. In contrast, lower perceived likelihood and greater uncertainty were observed for less directly observable processes, such as Bering Sea acidification (25–30% high likelihood; 25–30% neutral) and marine heatwave–related wildlife impacts. Comparison with scientific projections revealed both convergence and divergence. Strong agreement occurred for impacts already experienced locally, while divergence emerged for less visible or longer-term processes, where community-assessed likelihood was lower than scientific expectations. These patterns indicate that climate change risk perception is shaped by lived experience, subsistence practices, and the salience of environmental change. This study demonstrates how structured assessment of perceived likelihood and concern can inform adaptation planning by identifying locally prioritized risks and areas of uncertainty. Integrating community-derived perceptions with climate forecasts supports more contextually relevant, credible, and actionable adaptation strategies in Indigenous and rural Arctic communities.</p>

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Translating community perceptions and concerns into planning: climate change adaptation in Hooper Bay, Alaska

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月22日

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  • Joseph T. Molina,
  • Agatha A. Napoleon,
  • Estelle Angutekaraq Thomson,
  • Colleen Timmer,
  • Andre Simon,
  • Agulria Smart,
  • Billy Tinker-Smith,
  • Nicole Schmitt,
  • Chelsey Cook

摘要

Arctic and sub-Arctic communities are experiencing rapid climate change, yet local impacts, experiences, and priorities are not always fully reflected in formal adaptation planning. Conventional approaches often emphasize top-down knowledge transfer, limiting the integration of community perspectives into decision-making. We conducted a survey in Hooper Bay, Alaska, to assess perceptions of 11 forecasted climate change impacts and examine how locally grounded knowledge aligns with scientific projections. Twenty participants rated the perceived likelihood of each impact and their level of concern using a 5-point ordinal scale. Responses were summarized as proportions across ordinal categories and compared descriptively with probability ranges derived from the scientific literature. Perceived likelihood and concern were highest for impacts that are locally observable and directly affect subsistence activities, including long-term sea level rise (80% likelihood, 90% concern), increased storm frequency and intensity (75%, 80%), loss of freshwater sources (75%, 75%), and degradation of nesting waterfowl habitat (65%, 80%). Declining sea ice conditions (65%, 65%) were also widely recognized. In contrast, lower perceived likelihood and greater uncertainty were observed for less directly observable processes, such as Bering Sea acidification (25–30% high likelihood; 25–30% neutral) and marine heatwave–related wildlife impacts. Comparison with scientific projections revealed both convergence and divergence. Strong agreement occurred for impacts already experienced locally, while divergence emerged for less visible or longer-term processes, where community-assessed likelihood was lower than scientific expectations. These patterns indicate that climate change risk perception is shaped by lived experience, subsistence practices, and the salience of environmental change. This study demonstrates how structured assessment of perceived likelihood and concern can inform adaptation planning by identifying locally prioritized risks and areas of uncertainty. Integrating community-derived perceptions with climate forecasts supports more contextually relevant, credible, and actionable adaptation strategies in Indigenous and rural Arctic communities.