Mangrove landward migration in the Yucatan Peninsula between 1984 and 2024
摘要
Mangroves are vulnerable to rising sea levels and have shown two main mechanisms for adaptation: (1) vertical adjustments related to feedback between plant growth, inundation, and sediment deposition, and (2) horizontal movement to occupy adjacent ecosystems. In this study, the landward migration of mangroves on the Yucatán Peninsula (YP) was characterized for the period 1984–2024. A hybrid classification approach was used to construct coverage maps of mangroves, other vegetation types, and associated land uses. Overlay analysis revealed landward migration in four sub-regions. The total mangrove area identified with landward migration corresponded to 1754.38 ha, distributed in 79 polygons. The average area and distance of landward migration was 22 ha and 178.1 m, respectively. The average landward migration rate observed was 0.5 ha year−1, with an average landward migration speed of 4.47 m year−1. Landward migration occurred in an altitudinal range between − 5.93 and 6.77 m asl, where 50% of the migration areas were located between − 2.09 and 1.59 m asl. The sub-regions with the highest proportion of landward migration contain natural protected areas that are subject to terrigenous sediment inputs. Migration occurs in adjacent upslope and upstream areas, substituting ecosystems such as other wetlands, tropical forests, and areas with anthropogenic development. For the first time, landward mangrove migration was assessed in the YP, a region with more than half of Mexico’s mangrove coverage.