<p>Differential tree species response to a changing climate could serve to drive changes in tree species dominance that alter forest ecosystem dynamics and have cascading socio-ecological impacts. This study projected climate change–driven shifts in tree species dominance across Canada’s forests by the end of the twenty-first century. To do this, we mapped predictions of dominant tree species under possible future climate conditions using remotely sensed data products and climate projections. We applied species distribution models incorporating spectral, structural, topographic, geographic, and climatic predictors to estimate dominant species and probability of occurrence across Canada’s forested ecozones in both 2020 and 2100. While holding other predictors constant, we altered climatic model inputs (i.e., precipitation and temperature) to relate possible future conditions under a moderate climate change scenario (SSP2-4.5). Comparisons of the model outputs for 2020 and 2100 were analyzed to assess changes in species dominance across environmental gradients and ecozones. Results indicate that approximately 18.7% (68.2 Mha) of Canada’s 367 Mha of treed area is projected to experience changes in dominant tree species by 2100. Of pixels projected to change, approximately 10.9% represented a transition from coniferous to broadleaf species, while approximately 7.8% reflect a shift from broadleaf to coniferous species. The greatest changes in species dominance were projected in areas of lower topographic wetness, high-elevation regions, and in ecozones near the southwestern and southeastern coasts, as these are expected to have relatively large climatic changes. By quantifying potential shifts in dominant species across ecological gradients, this study contributes to the broader understanding of climate-induced changes in forested ecosystems, enabling effective long-term silvicultural and conservation strategies.</p>

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Climate-driven changes in tree species dominance across Canada

  • Christopher Mulverhill,
  • Nicholas C. Coops,
  • Txomin Hermosilla,
  • Michael A. Wulder,
  • Joanne C. White,
  • Elizabeth M. Campbell,
  • Amy R. Wotherspoon

摘要

Differential tree species response to a changing climate could serve to drive changes in tree species dominance that alter forest ecosystem dynamics and have cascading socio-ecological impacts. This study projected climate change–driven shifts in tree species dominance across Canada’s forests by the end of the twenty-first century. To do this, we mapped predictions of dominant tree species under possible future climate conditions using remotely sensed data products and climate projections. We applied species distribution models incorporating spectral, structural, topographic, geographic, and climatic predictors to estimate dominant species and probability of occurrence across Canada’s forested ecozones in both 2020 and 2100. While holding other predictors constant, we altered climatic model inputs (i.e., precipitation and temperature) to relate possible future conditions under a moderate climate change scenario (SSP2-4.5). Comparisons of the model outputs for 2020 and 2100 were analyzed to assess changes in species dominance across environmental gradients and ecozones. Results indicate that approximately 18.7% (68.2 Mha) of Canada’s 367 Mha of treed area is projected to experience changes in dominant tree species by 2100. Of pixels projected to change, approximately 10.9% represented a transition from coniferous to broadleaf species, while approximately 7.8% reflect a shift from broadleaf to coniferous species. The greatest changes in species dominance were projected in areas of lower topographic wetness, high-elevation regions, and in ecozones near the southwestern and southeastern coasts, as these are expected to have relatively large climatic changes. By quantifying potential shifts in dominant species across ecological gradients, this study contributes to the broader understanding of climate-induced changes in forested ecosystems, enabling effective long-term silvicultural and conservation strategies.