<p>Colombia is an emerging frontier in fine-flavour cacao production, but its potential is threatened by climate change. This study assesses climate-driven shifts in suitability for commercially cultivated and wild cacao using a combination of different ensemble habitat suitability models (i.e. ensemble-of-ensemble models). To guide the sourcing of planting material and zone-specific adaptation measures, suitable areas were categorized into ecogeographical zones with similar environmental conditions. To identify populations that may harbour climate change–tolerant genotypes, an outlier analysis was carried out to pinpoint localities at the margins of cacao’s environmental niche. For commercially cultivated cacao, the ensemble models predict that around 20% of currently suitable areas may become unsuitable by 2050, with the most vulnerable regions concentrated in the lowlands in the north and northeast of the country. However, most areas along the Andean foothills, currently most important for cacao production, are predicted to remain suitable. The models also predict a 3% expansion of suitable areas, primarily shifting to higher elevation areas. For wild cacao, forecasts are more optimistic, with more expansion than contraction, suggesting a potentially important role for wild cacao genetic resources in climate-smart breeding, and stressing the importance of conserving wild cacao populations. In light of these predictions, a number of adaptation measures are proposed in each of the ecogeographical zones, emphasizing the broader adoption of agroforestry and the identification of climate change–tolerant genotypes in areas where cacao occurs at the margins of its climatic niche.</p>