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<p>Climate change significantly impacts agricultural production practices and pollutant emissions. China, one of the world’s largest agricultural nations, is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Using data from China’s 2533 counties from 2000 to 2020, this study calculates and compares water pollutant-based agricultural green productivity change by incorporating and excluding climate factors within the production function, and assesses the impacts of climate change on agricultural green productivity. Results indicate that agricultural green productivity change including climate factors is lower than when excluded in most years, indicating that climate change is more likely to cause negative impacts on China’s agricultural green productivity. Specifically, the negative impact on agricultural green technology efficiency change (AGEC) is smaller than that on agricultural green total factor productivity change (AGTFPC) and agricultural green technology progress change (AGTC). Furthermore, a regional comparative analysis reveals that climate change negatively affects AGTFPC, AGEC, and AGTC across nearly all agrarian regions, with exceptions observed in the AGEC of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and Sichuan Basin, and AGTC of South China. This study helps shape climate-resilient policies to enhance agricultural sustainability.</p>

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Climate change impacts on agricultural green productivity in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月26日

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  • Xin Peng

摘要

Climate change significantly impacts agricultural production practices and pollutant emissions. China, one of the world’s largest agricultural nations, is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Using data from China’s 2533 counties from 2000 to 2020, this study calculates and compares water pollutant-based agricultural green productivity change by incorporating and excluding climate factors within the production function, and assesses the impacts of climate change on agricultural green productivity. Results indicate that agricultural green productivity change including climate factors is lower than when excluded in most years, indicating that climate change is more likely to cause negative impacts on China’s agricultural green productivity. Specifically, the negative impact on agricultural green technology efficiency change (AGEC) is smaller than that on agricultural green total factor productivity change (AGTFPC) and agricultural green technology progress change (AGTC). Furthermore, a regional comparative analysis reveals that climate change negatively affects AGTFPC, AGEC, and AGTC across nearly all agrarian regions, with exceptions observed in the AGEC of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and Sichuan Basin, and AGTC of South China. This study helps shape climate-resilient policies to enhance agricultural sustainability.